Trump’s tariff plans are expected to drive prices up and reduce consumer spending power
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Key stat: President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed 10% to 20% tariffs could cause double-digit price hikes across six retail categories, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF) analysis from November 2024.
Beyond the chart:
- The cost of either tariff scenario is likely too high for US brands and retailers to cover, shifting the burden onto consumers. This could mean paying up to $24.0 billion more for apparel, $14.2 billion for toys, and $13.1 billion more for furniture, according to the NRF.
- Each year the tariffs are in place, US consumers could lose $46.2 billion to $76.7 billion in total buying power, per the NRF. For households already watching their wallets, this could mean an additional $362 to $624 in annual expenses.
Use this chart: Brands and retailers can use this chart to show how tariffs may raise consumer prices, diminish purchasing power, and potentially lower demand across categories.
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Methodology: Data is from the November 2024 National Retail Federation (NRF) report titled "Estimated Impacts of Proposed Tariffs on Imports: Apparel, Toys, Furniture, Household Appliances, Footwear, and Travel Goods" prepared by Trade Partnership Worldwide, LLC. The report employed a globally linked, partial equilibrium analysis of tariff policy using the "Global Simulation Model" (GSIM) framework to examine cross-country impacts of tariff changes. The analysis included product-specific models, considering both increased tariff rates and existing tariffs. TPW grouped products by Harmonized Tariff System (HTS) codes and modeled trade effects on prices, supply, demand, and consumer/producer surplus, including national impacts for imports from China specifically.