The news: Coming off a post-pandemic slump, the pharma sector is poised for a bounce-back year that could include more drug approvals, therapeutic innovations, and dealmaking, according to a new report from Evaluate.
For context, waning demand for COVID-related products and treatments led to a downturn for many pharma companies immediately following the pandemic. Supply chain disruptions and inflation-driven pressures further affected the broader sector.
Forecasting a big 2025 for pharma: Evaluate is projecting an $82 billion spike in pharma product sales this year across clinical indications that the company analyzed. That would account for the largest revenue jump since the pandemic.
Projected top global selling drugs and therapy areas in 2025 include:
1. GLP-1s: Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide, (sold as Ozempic and Wegovy) and Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide (sold as Mounjaro and Zepbound) are on track to generate more than $70 billion in combined sales in 2025. These four GLP-1 drugs are also expected to be the fastest-growing medications this year, measured by the difference between 2025 and 2024 sales.
2. Autoimmune/immunology: Future sales of AbbVie’s Skyrizi, sold for psoriatic conditions and inflammatory bowel disease, are forecasted to top $20 billion. Sanofi and Regeneron’s Dupixent, primarily used to treat allergic and inflammatory conditions, is slated to generate over $15 billion in sales this year.
3. Oncology: Sales of Merck’s blockbuster cancer drug, Keytruda, should peak in 2025, eclipsing $30 billion.
Evaluate also predicts 71 new drugs will get FDA approvals in 2025, up from about 50 last year. New FDA drug approvals dipped during 2021 and 2022 due to the hole that COVID put in sector productivity, per Evaluate.
Yes, but: Increases in drug approvals and overall sales are no guarantee as there is still great uncertainty around how the second Trump administration may impact the space.
Trump’s nominees to head the FDA and HHS have criticized the agencies they’re now tapped to lead. RFK Jr. has taken particular issue with “corruption” between the FDA and the industry it regulates and could look to modify the process by which drugs are approved or take other action to restrict patient access to certain treatments.
At the same time, improved access to capital and less M&A scrutiny under new FTC leadership could spur more pharma dealmaking. This may be most prevalent in the GLP-1 space as bigger drug developers make a move on smaller players, per Evaluate.
Our take: 2025 is a big year for pharma companies as they look to rebound from a recent downturn and position themselves for a future that could result in some of their biggest blockbuster drugs being subject to price negotiations. Evaluate’s projections provide a window into the sector’s potential for the year ahead, but the true outlook won’t be known until we get more clarity on who will lead the new administration’s health agencies and what their priorities will be.
This article is part of EMARKETER’s client-only subscription Briefings—daily newsletters authored by industry analysts who are experts in marketing, advertising, media, and tech trends. To help you finish 2024 strong, and start 2025 off on the right foot, articles like this one—delivering the latest news and insights—are completely free through January 31, 2025. If you want to learn how to get insights like these delivered to your inbox every day, and get access to our data-driven forecasts, reports, and industry benchmarks, schedule a demo with our sales team.