TikTok Shop propels social commerce growth in 2024

Sales and buyer growth will both tick up temporarily

There will be over 100 million social buyers in the US in 2024, according to our forecast. TikTok Shop, which launched in the US in September 2023, will be the single largest contributor to buyer and sales growth this year.

TikTok will gain 11.9 million more US buyers in 2024. TikTok Shop has flooded users’ feeds with shoppable content, prompting more people to shop and buy on the platform. Meanwhile, Instagram will add 3.9 million more buyers this year, compared with 2.6 million for Facebook and 1.1 million for Pinterest. Together, that will push the number of US social buyers to 100.7 million this year.

US social commerce sales will see an even stronger boost, reaching $71.62 billion in 2024. Most social commerce purchases are of low-ticket items, particularly on TikTok. But the influx of new buyers to the platform, combined with the high frequency with which TikTok shoppers make purchases, will cause sales growth to spike to 26.0% in 2024 before returning to pre-TikTok Shop levels next year.

Buyer growth will slow significantly in 2025, even on TikTok. In 2024, TikTok will have a higher share of users who are buyers than any other platform. But as the novelty and excitement of TikTok Shop starts to wear off, it will be harder to convert users into buyers. Buyer’s remorse could also deter some users from shopping: Over half (55%) of social shoppers regret impulse purchases made on social, per a July 2024 SimplicityDX report.

Definitions and Notes

Social commerce sales include products and services ordered by buying directly on a social platform or through clicking links that lead to a retailer's product page with an immediate purchase option, regardless of the method of payment or fulfillment.

It also includes transactions that were agreed on social platforms initially, but payment took place elsewhere (e.g., PayPal, C2C transactions on Facebook Marketplace).

It excludes YouTube and Twitch, cash transactions, travel and event tickets, tips, subscriptions, payments such as bill pay, taxes or money transfers, food services and drinking place sales, gambling, and other vice goods sales.

Social buyers are social network users ages 14+ who have made at least one purchase via any social channel, including through links and in-app transactions, during the calendar year. It excludes YouTube and Twitch.

Our forecast assumes that TikTok will continue to operate in the US in 2025 and beyond.

Read the full report, US Social Commerce Forecast 2024.