If TikTok gets banned, where does brand ad spend go?

Article by Becky Schilling | Mar 7, 2023

Just two days ago, another TikTok ban bill was proposed. Though it’s not law, there are already state bans for the use of the social media app on government phones or accessed through Wi-Fi offered at some state colleges.

If—and it’s a big if—TikTok were banned in the US, where would those ad dollars go? We asked our analysts at our virtual summit last week.

YouTube’s Shorts could benefit, according to our analyst Jeremy Goldman.

Shorts was a bright spot in Google’s less-than-stellar fourth-quarter earnings. Shorts hit 50 billion daily views, up from 30 billion in the first quarter of 2022.
YouTube’s new Shorts revenue-sharing program might cut into Google’s earnings, but in the case of a TikTok ban, creators might follow the ad dollars to Shorts.

Retail media could be another beneficiary, said our analyst Jasmine Enberg.

Retail media is growing to a $45 billion market this year, and it will grow another $10 billion in 2024, according to our forecast.
As retail media moves up the funnel into new formats, social media will come into play, according to our analyst Andrew Lipsman.

Other possible beneficiaries include Instagram, Netflix, and BeReal, particularly with its younger consumer base, though BeReal has yet to figure out ways to monetize its app.

What’s at stake:

Short-from video ad spending will increase by 10.4% this year to reach $18.3 billion, according to Magna Global.
Social video ad budgets will weather the downturn in ad spending better than nonvideo formats, according to our forecast. One reason: consumers, who will spend 56.3% of time spent on social networks this year watching video.
Video now accounts for over half of social network ad revenues, according to our forecast. We expect this to grow 21.2% this year to reach $36.14 billion.
Though growth is slowing, we expect US retail social commerce sales to grow 29.8% this year to reach $68.92 billion.