TikTok Ban 2025

Meta and YouTube Stand to Gain 50% of Reallocated US TikTok Ad Dollars

Report by Jasmine Enberg, and Minda Smiley  | Jan 8, 2025
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Executive Summary
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
TikTok wouldn’t simply disappear from the US
Meta and YouTube would be the biggest financial beneficiaries
Social platforms would jockey for users and time spent
Creators are split on a TikTok alternative
Brands could scatter influencer marketing dollars
There is no clear winner in commerce
Sources
Media Gallery
About This Report
The loss of TikTok in the US would cause a ripple effect across the media, marketing, and commerce landscape. Meta and YouTube stand to gain the most, but there is a long list of other winners—and losers.
Topics
Social Commerce
Social Media Usage
Social Media Ad Spending
United States
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
TikTok wouldn’t simply disappear from the US
Meta and YouTube would be the biggest financial beneficiaries
Social platforms would jockey for users and time spent
Creators are split on a TikTok alternative
Brands could scatter influencer marketing dollars
There is no clear winner in commerce
Sources
Media Gallery

The January 19 deadline for TikTok to divest or be banned in the US is fast approaching. Incoming President Donald Trump could be TikTok’s best shot at remaining in the US once he takes office one day later. But if the Supreme Court doesn’t grant Trump’s request for a delay—or the president-elect is unsuccessful at forging a resolution to save TikTok—it would cause major disruption in the digital landscape.

Key Question: Where would US TikTok users, creators, and businesses go if the ban is enforced in 2025?

Meta and YouTube Could Capture About Half of Reallocated US TikTok Ad Dollars if Ban Is Enforced (average % of reallocated US TikTok ad spending, by platform/channel, 2025*)
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Key Stat: Instagram would be the single largest financial beneficiary of a TikTok ban, attracting an average of 22.4% of reallocated US TikTok dollars.

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Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. TikTok wouldn’t simply disappear from the US
  3. Meta and YouTube would be the biggest financial beneficiaries
  1. Social platforms would jockey for users and time spent
  2. Creators are split on a TikTok alternative
  3. Brands could scatter influencer marketing dollars
  1. There is no clear winner in commerce
  2. Sources
  3. Media Gallery

Charts in This Report

Meta and YouTube Could Capture About Half of Reallocated US TikTok Ad Dollars if Ban Is Enforced (average % of reallocated US TikTok ad spending, by platform/channel, 2025*)Meta’s US Ad Business Was Roughly 7.5 Times the Size of YouTube’s in 2024 (billions in US digital ad revenues, by social network or video company, 2024)
Social Networks Stand to Gain From Massive Amounts of Time Spent on TikTok if App Is Banned (average minutes spent per day on social networks among US users, by platform, 2022-2026)Nearly 3 in 4 US TikTok Users Also Use Instagram (TikTok dual user % of US TikTok users, by platform, 2024)
US Creators Think Instagram Is Best for Growing an Audience if the TikTok Ban Takes Effect (% of US-based TikTok creators, May 2024)Twice the Number of US Creators Prefer YouTube Over Instagram as a TikTok Alternative (% of US TikTok content creators, March 2024)
More US Marketers Already Use Instagram Reels Than TikTok for Influencer Marketing (% of US marketers using influencer marketing, by social network, 2024-2026)TikTok Shop Has Been a Boon for Many US Businesses on the Platform (% of US users of each social network who make a purchase on the platform, 2022-2025)

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authors

Jasmine Enberg, and Minda Smiley

Contributors

Zach Goldner
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Erika Huber
Director, Report Editing
Penelope Lin
Director, Data Visualization
Matt Torpey
Senior Chart Editor
Paul Verna
VP, Content
Ali Young
Senior Copy Editor