What a second Trump presidency means for the payments industry

The news: President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House will reverberate across the payments industry.

Here’s what to expect from the next Trump Administration:

A transformed CFPB

Despite some conservative lawmakers' efforts to shutter the CFPB, the Supreme Court’s ruling this year means the regulatory agency likely isn’t going anywhere. But the agency’s leadership and policy directions definitely won’t stay the same under Trump.

• CFPB Director Rohit Chopra will likely be forced out before he finishes out his term so that Trump can appoint someone who aligns with his priorities. Given Republicans will control the Senate, Trump should be able to get his new appointee confirmed.
• And CFPB rules that haven’t gone into effect yet could be rolled back. For example, buy now, pay later (BNPL) stocks surged Wednesday under the expectation that Trump’s CFPB would relax the proposed BNPL rule. The agency’s open banking rule may also be up in the air after facing industry pushback. But Republicans seem to support open banking initiatives, so the rule could hold under Trump.

A crypto boom

During the campaign, Trump positioned himself as the “crypto president” and promised to transform the US into the “crypto capital of the planet.” We expect to see a boost in crypto ownership over the next four years, which could fuel crypto payments adoption.

• Bitcoin’s price hit a new record after the election, showing consumers’ enthusiasm for the asset under a Trump presidency.
• His administration could also create favorable regulation for the industry. Trump has promised to fire Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chair Gary Gensler, who has come down hard on the crypto industry.
• Elon Musk’s close ties to Trump and his potential role in the next administration could also boost the White House’s crypto ambitions: Musk is a vocal crypto proponent.

Better odds for the Capital One-Discover merger

It’s unclear what the fate of the proposed Capital One-Discover merger will be under Trump’s administration given the mixed M&A approach he took during his first term.

But the merger does have better odds under Trump than it would have if Vice President Kamala Harris had won; Republicans tend to be more sympathetic to big business than Democrats.

Our take: Trump’s win will have major ramifications across the financial services industry. Payment players will need to monitor these changes as they plan their strategies for the next four years.