Retail Media Forecast Report Update

Diversification Drives a New Phase of Growth

Report by Max Willens  | Jan 29, 2025
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Executive Summary
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
More than $10 billion in incremental ad spending will flow into US retail media in 2025
Retail media search ad spending will close in on $40 billion in 2025
Retail media display ad spending will approach $23 billion in 2025
Off-site retail media will deliver more than one-fifth of retail media ad spending in 2025
In-store retail media ad spending will exceed $500 million in 2025
What it all means for advertisers
EMARKETER Interviews
Sources
Media Gallery
About This Report
Retail media’s growth will continue to be fueled by two complementary advertiser needs: the need for measurable sales, and the need for privacy-compliant data that can be used to reach consumers at the top or middle of the purchase funnel.
Topics
Digital Ad Spending
Programmatic Ad Spending
United States
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
More than $10 billion in incremental ad spending will flow into US retail media in 2025
Retail media search ad spending will close in on $40 billion in 2025
Retail media display ad spending will approach $23 billion in 2025
Off-site retail media will deliver more than one-fifth of retail media ad spending in 2025
In-store retail media ad spending will exceed $500 million in 2025
What it all means for advertisers
EMARKETER Interviews
Sources
Media Gallery

Retail media’s growth will continue to be fueled by two complementary advertiser needs: the need for measurable sales, and the need for privacy-compliant data that can be used to reach consumers at the top or middle of the purchase funnel.

Key Question: How will retail media ad spending continue to evolve over the next four years?

US Retail Media Ad Spending Will Increase by 88.5% From 2024 to 2028 (billions in US retail media ad spending, % change, and % of digital ad spending, 2024-2028)
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Key Stat: Retail media ad spending will have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.2% between 2024 and 2028, per our forecast.

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    Table of Contents

    1. Executive Summary
    2. More than $10 billion in incremental ad spending will flow into US retail media in 2025
    3. Retail media search ad spending will close in on $40 billion in 2025
    4. Retail media display ad spending will approach $23 billion in 2025
    1. Off-site retail media will deliver more than one-fifth of retail media ad spending in 2025
    2. In-store retail media ad spending will exceed $500 million in 2025
    3. What it all means for advertisers
    4. EMARKETER Interviews
    1. Sources
    2. Media Gallery

    Charts in This Report

    US Retail Media Ad Spending Will Increase by 88.5% From 2024 to 2028 (billions in US retail media ad spending, % change, and % of digital ad spending, 2024-2028)Sponsored Search Penetration Continues to Inch Up Across Retail Media Networks (% of US retail site search result pages showing at least 1 sponsored product, by retailer, Q1 2024 vs. Q3 2024)
    The Average Walmart Online Shopper Sees 6 Times as Many Ads as a Target Online Shopper Does (average number of sponsored product ads per US retail site search result page, by retailer, Q4 2023-Q3 2024)Display Will Represent Over 40% of Retail Media Ad Spending by 2028 (billions in US retail media ad spending, by format, 2024-2028)
    Retail Media CTV Ad Spending Will Triple Between 2024 and 2028 (billions in US retail media connected TV (CTV) ad spending, % of CTV ad spending, and % of retail media display ad spending, 2024-2028)Off-Site Ads Will Deliver More Than One-Fifth of Retail Media Ad Spending in 2025 (% of US retail media ad spending, by ad placement, 2024-2028)
    The Gap Between Retail Media Display and Search Ad Spending Outside of Amazon Is Narrowing (billions in US non-Amazon retail media display vs. search ad spending, 2022-2026)In-Store Retail Media Ad Spending Will Nearly Triple From 2024 to 2028 (billions in US in-store retail media ad spending, % change, % of digital out-of-home (DOOH) ad spending, 2024-2028)

    Interviewed for This Report

    Jeff Daniel
    The Trade Desk
    General Manager, Retail Data Partnerships
    Interviewed January 9, 2025
    Ryan Dietrich
    .monks
    Senior Vice President, Ecommerce, Retail Media, and Technology
    Interviewed January 9, 2025
    Cyndi Loza
    Path to Purchase Institute
    Senior Editor
    Interviewed January 10, 2025
    Sejal Sheth
    Harvest Group
    Vice President, Digital Commerce and Media
    Interviewed January 8, 2025

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    authors

    Max Willens

    Contributors

    Rahul Chadha
    Director, Report Editing
    Vladimir de Leon
    Chart Editor
    Nikolai Dineros
    Penelope Lin
    Director, Data Visualization
    Sarah Marzano
    Principal Analyst, Retail Media
    Andrew Spink
    Forecasting Analyst
    Yoram Wurmser
    Principal Analyst