Retail Media Forecast H2 2023

Strong Growth Boosts Our Forecast—but the Path to Strategic Spending Is Rocky

Report by Max Willens  | UPDATED: Dec 22, 2023
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Executive Summary
Retail media has the potential to become the most important ad spending channel out there
A rough H1 for digital ad spending didn’t slow retail media down
Insider Intelligence Interviews
Sources
Media Gallery
About This Report
Expanded opportunities have made retail media’s rosy forecast even rosier. But retailers and buyers need to address the channel’s measurement, standardization, and complexity challenges.
Topics
Retail Media
United States
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Retail media has the potential to become the most important ad spending channel out there
A rough H1 for digital ad spending didn’t slow retail media down
Insider Intelligence Interviews
Sources
Media Gallery

Retail media has become strategically important to marketers. But the challenges the channel presents, and how advertisers respond to those challenges, are also coming into focus. Retailers’ approach has massive implications for retail media networks themselves—and for other ad spending channels, as well.

Key Question: What will compel retailers to adopt the standardization and measurement needed to unlock retail media’s maximum potential?

Our 2024 US Retail Media Ad Spending Forecast Is Over $4 Billion Higher (billions, 2023-2027)
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KEY STAT: Increased spending in retail media connected TV and other off-site formats has pushed our forecast up several percentage points, starting with a 3.2% increase in 2024.

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    Table of Contents

    1. Executive Summary
    2. Retail media has the potential to become the most important ad spending channel out there
    1. A rough H1 for digital ad spending didn’t slow retail media down
    2. Insider Intelligence Interviews
    1. Sources
    2. Media Gallery

    Charts in This Report

    Our 2024 US Retail Media Ad Spending Forecast Is Over $4 Billion Higher (billions, 2023-2027)Onsite Spending Will Continue to Dominate Retail Media, but It Will Lose Share Faster Than Expected (% of US retail media ad spending, 2023-2027)
    Non-Amazon US Retail Media Ad Spending Will Exceed $11 Billion in 2023 (billions, 2021-2025)There Are 6 Sub-Channels Regarded as 'Must Buy' by Two-Thirds of Retail Media Advertisers (% of agency professionals worldwide, March 2023)
    Our 2024 Retail Media CTV Ad Spending Forecast Is 143% Higher Than It Was This Spring (millions, 2023-2027)Nearly Half of Retail Media Advertisers Worldwide Won't Increase Their Ad Spending for Next 3 Years (% of respondents, Q1 2023)
    Nearly 6-in-10 Advertisers Worldwide Spend More Than a Quarter of Their Ad Budgets on Retail Media (% of respondents, Q1 2023)A Majority of US Ad Buyers Have Identified 4 Major Issues in the Retail Media Network Ecosystem (% respondents, June 2023)

    Interviewed for This Report

    Aron Bohlig
    ComCap
    Managing Partner
    Interviewed October 23, 2023
    Jeffrey Bustos
    Interactive Advertising Bureau
    Vice President, Measurement, Addressability and Data
    Interviewed October 18, 2023
    Glen Conybeare
    IPG Mediabrands
    Global President, Retail and Commerce
    Interviewed October 16, 2023
    Andy Friedland
    Swiftly
    Chief Revenue Officer
    Interviewed October 25, 2023
    Michael Greene
    Criteo
    Senior Vice President, Global Vertical Strategy
    Interviewed October 18, 2023
    David MacDonald
    Publicis Commerce
    Managing Director
    Interviewed October 23, 2023

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    First Published on Nov 8, 2023

    authors

    Max Willens

    Contributors

    Andrew Lipsman
    Principal Analyst, Retail & Ecommerce
    Peter Newman
    Director, Forecasting
    Paul Verna
    Principal Analyst