Retail Media Ad Spending Forecast and Trends H2 2025

Amazon and Walmart Are Running Away From Their Competitors

Report by Max Willens  | Nov 5, 2025
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Retail media ad spending will increase by over $10 billion in 2026
Amazon and Walmart are eating up most of the growth, leaving a small slice for the rest of the RMNs
Commerce media competitors might be copying RMNs, but they’re not yet crowding them out
Search’s share will keep growing, both on- and off-site
Display’s growth and spending continue to migrate off-site
Amazon’s DSP and Walmart’s partnerships pull most of the off-site growth in their direction
Implications for advertisers
Implications for media sellers
EMARKETER Interviews
Sources
Media Gallery
About This Report
Even on the other side of its peak growth, retail media ad spending will continue expanding at a healthy pace. But almost all of the incremental spending is going to just two companies.
Topics
Retail Media
United States
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Retail media ad spending will increase by over $10 billion in 2026
Amazon and Walmart are eating up most of the growth, leaving a small slice for the rest of the RMNs
Commerce media competitors might be copying RMNs, but they’re not yet crowding them out
Search’s share will keep growing, both on- and off-site
Display’s growth and spending continue to migrate off-site
Amazon’s DSP and Walmart’s partnerships pull most of the off-site growth in their direction
Implications for advertisers
Implications for media sellers
EMARKETER Interviews
Sources
Media Gallery

US advertisers will spend $69.33 billion on retail media in 2026, up from $58.79 billion in 2025, as brands continue to embrace the unique combination of data, audiences, and inventory offered by retail media networks (RMNs). But with $9.42 billion of that $10.53 billion in incremental spending going to Amazon Ads and Walmart Connect, the ecosystem must now start to reckon with a bifurcation that is getting more and more pronounced.

Key Question: How is ad spend migrating within the retail media ecosystem?

Key Stat: Walmart and Amazon will vacuum up over 89% of the incremental dollars spent in retail media in 2026.

Amazon and Walmart Are Stiff-Arming the Rest of the Retail Media Ecosystem
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    Table of Contents

    1. Executive Summary
    2. Retail media ad spending will increase by over $10 billion in 2026
    3. Amazon and Walmart are eating up most of the growth, leaving a small slice for the rest of the RMNs
    4. Commerce media competitors might be copying RMNs, but they’re not yet crowding them out
    1. Search’s share will keep growing, both on- and off-site
    2. Display’s growth and spending continue to migrate off-site
    3. Amazon’s DSP and Walmart’s partnerships pull most of the off-site growth in their direction
    4. Implications for advertisers
    1. Implications for media sellers
    2. EMARKETER Interviews
    3. Sources
    4. Media Gallery

    Charts in This Report

    Amazon and Walmart Are Stiff-Arming the Rest of the Retail Media EcosystemUS Retail Media Ad Spending Will Near $70 Billion in 2026, (billions in US retail media ad spending, % change, and % of total digital ad spending, 2025-2029)
    Amazon and Walmart Are Stiff-Arming the Rest of the Retail Media EcosystemWalmart Connect Is the Only RMN That Will Gain Significant Market Share Through 2027
    Nonretail Commerce Media Will Eclipse Smaller Retail Media Networks in Ad Spending This YearAbout $3 in Every $10 Spent on Search Will Go to Retail Media in 2027
    On-Site Retail Media Display Ad Spending Is the Slowest-Growing Category of Retail Media, (billions in US on-site retail media display ad spending, % change, and % of total on-site retail media ad spending, 2025-2029)Over 70% Retail Media Advertisers Say Video Is One of Their Main Off-Site Channels
    Advertisers Will Spend Over $10 Billion on Retail Media-Powered Social Ads in 2028, (billions in US retail media social ad spending, % of total retail media off-site ad spending, and % of total retail media ad spending, 2025-2029)Retail Media CTV Ad Spending Will Account for Over One-Third of Off-Site Spending Through 2029, (billions of US retail media connected TV (CTV) ad spending, % change, and % of total off-site retail media ad spending, 2025-2029)

    Interviewed for This Report

    Chance Chapman
    VML Commerce
    EVP, Innovation, Growth, Retail Media, Marketplace, and eRetail
    Interviewed October 27, 2025
    Amie Owen
    IPG Mediabrands
    Global Chief Commerce Officer
    Interviewed October 30, 2025
    Laura Pattison
    Monks
    VP, Retail Media
    Interviewed October 28, 2025
    Lauren Boyle Sanvidge
    PHD
    Head of Commerce
    Interviewed October 27, 2025

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    authors

    Max Willens

    Contributors

    Rahul Chadha
    Director, Report Editing
    Penelope Lin
    Director, Data Visualization
    Sarah Marzano
    Principal Analyst, Retail Media
    Andrew Spink
    Senior Forecasting Analyst
    Sakina Thanawala
    Copy Editor
    Matt Torpey
    Senior Chart Editor
    Emman Velasco
    Chart Editor
    Yoram Wurmser
    Principal Analyst