Retail Media Ad Spending Forecast H1 2023

As Retailers Race to Innovate, Ad Buyers Scramble to Keep Up

Report by Max Willens  | Apr 6, 2023
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Despite economic headwinds, digital advertising’s third wave is nowhere near cresting.
Steady retail ecommerce growth is providing a tailwind.
Amazon provides most of the oxygen.
The number of retailers getting in on the fun is growing—as is the number of RMNs brands use.
Retail media is dominated by on-site advertisements—for now.
CTV is less critical to retail media’s near-term future than presumed.
Advertisers’ sense of retail media’s place in the funnel is shifting.
Our forecast changes reflect a channel evolving too fast—for both its buyers and its sellers.
What this forecast means for you.
Insider Intelligence Interviews
Sources
Media Gallery
About This Report
Healthy growth will obscure the upheaval that retail media’s evolution is causing. Retailers racing to think more like publishers—and brands trying to rethink the value of retail media—are feeling some strain.
Topics
Retail Media
Search Ad Spending
United States
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Despite economic headwinds, digital advertising’s third wave is nowhere near cresting.
Steady retail ecommerce growth is providing a tailwind.
Amazon provides most of the oxygen.
The number of retailers getting in on the fun is growing—as is the number of RMNs brands use.
Retail media is dominated by on-site advertisements—for now.
CTV is less critical to retail media’s near-term future than presumed.
Advertisers’ sense of retail media’s place in the funnel is shifting.
Our forecast changes reflect a channel evolving too fast—for both its buyers and its sellers.
What this forecast means for you.
Insider Intelligence Interviews
Sources
Media Gallery

Executive Summary

Retail media should become one of digital media’s most important channels. But neither the buy nor sell sides have fully addressed the issues keeping the channel from maximizing its growth, including organizational challenges and measurement inconsistency.

Key Question: What is driving and hindering the growth of retail media ad spending?

KEY STAT: We expect advertisers to pour more than $45 billion into retail media ad spending in 2023.

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    Table of Contents

    1. Executive Summary
    2. Despite economic headwinds, digital advertising’s third wave is nowhere near cresting.
    3. Steady retail ecommerce growth is providing a tailwind.
    4. Amazon provides most of the oxygen.
    5. The number of retailers getting in on the fun is growing—as is the number of RMNs brands use.
    1. Retail media is dominated by on-site advertisements—for now.
    2. CTV is less critical to retail media’s near-term future than presumed.
    3. Advertisers’ sense of retail media’s place in the funnel is shifting.
    4. Our forecast changes reflect a channel evolving too fast—for both its buyers and its sellers.
    5. What this forecast means for you.
    1. Insider Intelligence Interviews
    2. Sources
    3. Media Gallery

    Charts in This Report

    US Amazon Retail Media Ad Revenues, 2021-2025 (billions)Number of Retail Media Networks Used by US Marketers, Summer 2022 (% of respondents)
    Metrics Used by Brands Worldwide to Evaluate Investment in Retail Media Networks, Sep 2022 (% of respondents)How Has Our US Retail Media Ad Spending Forecast Changed? (billions, 2020-2024)

    Interviewed for This Report

    Megan Cameron
    Merkle
    Vice President, Monetization Strategy
    Interviewed March 17, 2023
    Janine Flaccavento
    Merkle
    Executive Vice President, Vertical Lead
    Interviewed March 17, 2023
    Michael Greene
    Criteo
    Senior Vice President, Vertical Strategy
    Interviewed March 3, 2023
    Jaclyn Nix
    CitrusAd
    Executive Vice President, Ad Sales
    Interviewed March 13, 2023

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    Download
    Report
    The One-Pager
    Deck
    Share
    Table of Contents
    Executive Summary
    Despite economic headwinds, digital advertising’s third wave is nowhere near cresting.
    Steady retail ecommerce growth is providing a tailwind.
    Amazon provides most of the oxygen.
    The number of retailers getting in on the fun is growing—as is the number of RMNs brands use.
    Retail media is dominated by on-site advertisements—for now.
    CTV is less critical to retail media’s near-term future than presumed.
    Advertisers’ sense of retail media’s place in the funnel is shifting.
    Our forecast changes reflect a channel evolving too fast—for both its buyers and its sellers.
    What this forecast means for you.
    Insider Intelligence Interviews
    Sources
    Media Gallery
    About This Report
    Healthy growth will obscure the upheaval that retail media’s evolution is causing. Retailers racing to think more like publishers—and brands trying to rethink the value of retail media—are feeling some strain.
    Topics
    Retail Media
    Search Ad Spending
    United States
    Table of Contents
    Executive Summary
    Despite economic headwinds, digital advertising’s third wave is nowhere near cresting.
    Steady retail ecommerce growth is providing a tailwind.
    Amazon provides most of the oxygen.
    The number of retailers getting in on the fun is growing—as is the number of RMNs brands use.
    Retail media is dominated by on-site advertisements—for now.
    CTV is less critical to retail media’s near-term future than presumed.
    Advertisers’ sense of retail media’s place in the funnel is shifting.
    Our forecast changes reflect a channel evolving too fast—for both its buyers and its sellers.
    What this forecast means for you.
    Insider Intelligence Interviews
    Sources
    Media Gallery
    Download PDF

    authors

    Max Willens

    Contributors

    Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf
    Senior Analyst, Digital Advertising & Media
    Peter Newman
    Senior Forecasting Analyst
    Paul Verna
    Principal Analyst