The retail industry prepares to step out of the antitrust spotlight under Trump

The insight: After years of tough antitrust scrutiny from Lina Khan’s FTC and the Department of Justice (DOJ), retailers are preparing for looser oversight under incoming President Donald Trump’s administration, which could unlock a wave of mergers and acquisitions in the retail industry.

What it means for Kroger-Albertsons: The more favorable environment for corporate consolidation could offer a lifeline to the Kroger-Albertsons merger, currently being challenged in two states as well as in federal court. Judges in all three cases have yet to issue their rulings, which makes it unlikely that the merger—even if approved—would be completed before Trump takes office.

• Both Kroger’s and Albertsons’ share prices have risen steadily since the election in the expectation that a Trump administration would push the deal through.
• Still, the merger has considerable hurdles to overcome: Concerns that it would raise prices for consumers and lower wages for workers have drawn opposition from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, not to mention from powerful labor groups like the Teamsters and United Food and Commercial Workers International Union.

Regulatory shifts: The government’s approach to antitrust enforcement will undoubtedly shift over the next four years. Where President Biden’s administration was focused on how consolidation affects consumer prices—an understandable position to take when inflation is high—a Trump presidency is more likely to view M&A as beneficial to market competition.

• M&A activity is expected to increase by 20% in 2025, a stark contrast to the estimated 15% decline in such deals this year, per Goldman Sachs’ chief US equity strategist David Kostin.
• Rather than bringing high-profile suits and testing novel legal arguments, as Khan has done during her tenure as FTC chair, her replacement would likely adopt a narrower remit and favor settlements over lengthy court cases.

Looking ahead: For all of Trump’s pro-business talk, he has given key roles in his administration to politicians who have been outspoken about their opposition to Big Tech and corporate consolidation. His pick for attorney general, former Rep. Matt Gaetz, and Vice President-elect J.D. Vance are both vocal supporters of Khan and her approach to antitrust enforcement—although the former faces an uphill battle for confirmation.

Antitrust enforcement also has clear bipartisan support.

• 69% of US adult citizens—including 83% of Democrats and 62% of Republicans—support antitrust laws, per an October 2023 YouGov survey.
• Voters also largely believe that stricter rules will help, rather than hinder. A plurality—49%—think that stricter antitrust enforcement would be better for consumers, while 44% think it would do more to help the economy.

Trump’s presidency will undoubtedly be friendlier to large mergers like the Kroger-Albertsons deal, and more supportive of M&A activity overall. That doesn’t mean, however, that retailers should expect a cakewalk, given his aggressive stance on antitrust during his first term and the potential influence of Vance and Gaetz on policy.

Go further: See what else we predict will happen to the retail industry under the Trump administration.