Retail & Ecommerce Earnings Q4 2024

Spending Disparities Show Growing Consumer Divide

Report by Zak Stambor, and Rachel Wolff  | Mar 19, 2025
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Calendar Quirks and Unexpected Weather Shaped Consumer Spending Patterns in Q4 and into 2025
Nordstrom Gains Momentum as Kohl’s and Macy’s Struggle
Hurricane-Related Repairs Boost Home Improvement Chains in Q4
Mass Merchants Outperformed During the Holiday Quarter
Despite Slowing Sales, Off-Price Retailers’ Value Proposition Resonated with Shoppers in Q4
Sources:
Media Gallery
About This Report
Record holiday sales helped retailers, but purchasing patterns across income groups diverged starkly. Middle- and lower-income consumers grew more selective, carefully weighing where and when to spend amid economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, higher-income shoppers continued to spend freely.
Topics
Retail Sales
United States
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Calendar Quirks and Unexpected Weather Shaped Consumer Spending Patterns in Q4 and into 2025
Nordstrom Gains Momentum as Kohl’s and Macy’s Struggle
Hurricane-Related Repairs Boost Home Improvement Chains in Q4
Mass Merchants Outperformed During the Holiday Quarter
Despite Slowing Sales, Off-Price Retailers’ Value Proposition Resonated with Shoppers in Q4
Sources:
Media Gallery

Record holiday sales helped retailers, but purchasing patterns across income groups diverged starkly. Middle- and lower-income consumers grew more selective, carefully weighing where and when to spend amid economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, higher-income shoppers continued to spend freely.

This spending divide is shaping current retail trends: Budget-conscious consumers are prioritizing essentials and seeking the best deals, while affluent shoppers prop up categories like designer goods, travel, and high-end experiences.

Key Question: What do Q4 2024 earnings tell us about the state of US consumer spending? 

Unexpected Weather and Bargain Hunting Influenced Consumer Spending in Q4 (% change YoY and billions in US net sales of major retailers, by retail category, Q1 2023-Q4 2024)
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Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. Calendar Quirks and Unexpected Weather Shaped Consumer Spending Patterns in Q4 and into 2025
  3. Nordstrom Gains Momentum as Kohl’s and Macy’s Struggle
  1. Hurricane-Related Repairs Boost Home Improvement Chains in Q4
  2. Mass Merchants Outperformed During the Holiday Quarter
  3. Despite Slowing Sales, Off-Price Retailers’ Value Proposition Resonated with Shoppers in Q4
  1. Sources:
  2. Media Gallery

Charts in This Report

Unexpected Weather and Bargain Hunting Influenced Consumer Spending in Q4 (% change YoY and billions in US net sales of major retailers, by retail category, Q1 2023-Q4 2024)Department Stores Hit Hard by Shoppers' Cutbacks on Nonessential Spending (% change YoY and billions in US Macy's, Kohl's, and Nordstrom net sales, Q1 2023-Q4 2024)
Hurricane-Related Repairs Drive Growth Among Home Improvement Retailers (% change YoY and billions in US net sales of The Home Depot, Lowe's, and Wayfair, Q1 2023-Q4 2024)Target Lags as Amazon and Walmart Lead in US Mass Merchant Sales Growth (% change YoY and billions in US Walmart, Amazon, and Target net sales, Q1 2023-Q4 2024)
Off-Price Retailers' Sales Slow as Consumers Pull Back Discretionary Spending (% change YoY and billions in US net sales of select off-price retailers, Q1 2023-Q4 2024)

authors

Zak Stambor, and Rachel Wolff

Contributors

Karen Jacobs
Oscar Orozco
Senior Director, Forecasting
Tyler Van Dyke
Brian Lau
Senior Forecasting Analyst