Q1 2023 Paid Social Forecast and Trends

As Overall Growth Slows, Social Media Starts to Mature

Report by Max Willens  | Feb 10, 2023
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Social media is running out of headroom.
But social users remain very valuable.
Short-form video continues to dominate.
Time spent with social is almost flatlining.
Facebook faces another year of user and time spent declines.
Instagram keeps users on the hook and reels advertisers back in.
Meta’s Advantage+ tools had a strong showing in Q4.
TikTok remains social’s darling, but advertisers beware of a ban.
Gen Z is the social video generation.
What’s next for the ‘other’ platforms?
What should advertisers look out for in 2023?
Insider Intelligence Interviews
Sources
Media Gallery
About This Report
As social media grows more “lean-back” than “lean-in,” it’s settling into an era of more modest growth defined by short-form video consumption, stabilizing time spent, and ongoing challenges with Apple’s AppTrackingTransparency.
Topics
Social Media Ad Spending
Social Media Users
United States
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Social media is running out of headroom.
But social users remain very valuable.
Short-form video continues to dominate.
Time spent with social is almost flatlining.
Facebook faces another year of user and time spent declines.
Instagram keeps users on the hook and reels advertisers back in.
Meta’s Advantage+ tools had a strong showing in Q4.
TikTok remains social’s darling, but advertisers beware of a ban.
Gen Z is the social video generation.
What’s next for the ‘other’ platforms?
What should advertisers look out for in 2023?
Insider Intelligence Interviews
Sources
Media Gallery

Executive Summary

With little room left for user penetration, a recession looming, and ongoing challenges related to Apple’s AppTrackingTransparency (ATT), US social network ad spending growth in 2023 will be less than half what it’s been for most of the past decade, and it will remain that way through at least 2024.

KEY QUESTION: How will social network ad spending change, and what are the key trends in user behavior across social platforms?

To view the full forecast, click here.

KEY STAT: From 2021 through 2024, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for social network ad spending will be just 7.9%.

Here’s what’s in the full report

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9expert perspectives

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    Table of Contents

    1. Executive Summary
    2. Social media is running out of headroom.
    3. But social users remain very valuable.
    4. Short-form video continues to dominate.
    5. Time spent with social is almost flatlining.
    1. Facebook faces another year of user and time spent declines.
    2. Instagram keeps users on the hook and reels advertisers back in.
    3. Meta’s Advantage+ tools had a strong showing in Q4.
    4. TikTok remains social’s darling, but advertisers beware of a ban.
    5. Gen Z is the social video generation.
    1. What’s next for the ‘other’ platforms?
    2. What should advertisers look out for in 2023?
    3. Insider Intelligence Interviews
    4. Sources
    5. Media Gallery

    Charts in This Report

    Average Time Spent per Day With Social Networks by US Adults, With vs. Without TikTok, 2019-2024 (minutes)Time Spent Weekly With Select Apps by US Gen Z, Sep 2022

    Interviewed for This Report

    Avi Ben-Zvi
    Tinuiti
    Vice President, Paid Social
    Interviewed December 15, 2022
    Beth Ann Kaminkow
    VMLY&R Commerce
    Global CEO
    Interviewed December 15, 2022
    Amy Luca
    MediaMonks
    Executive Vice President, Global Head of Social
    Interviewed January 10, 2023
    Megan Marks
    Dentsu
    Group Director, Social Partnerships and Innovation
    Interviewed December 15, 2022
    Deirdre McGlashan
    Stagwell
    Chief Media Officer
    Interviewed December 19, 2022
    Erica Patrick
    Mediahub
    Senior Vice President, Director of Paid Social Media
    Interviewed December 14, 2022
    Jessi Patrick
    Zenith
    Vice President, Social
    Interviewed December 21, 2022
    Melissa Wisehart
    MediaMonks
    Senior Vice President, Global Media
    Interviewed January 10, 2023
    Amy Worley
    VMLY&R
    Global Chief Connections Officer
    Interviewed December 13, 2022

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    Download
    Report
    Deck
    The One-Pager
    Share
    Table of Contents
    Executive Summary
    Social media is running out of headroom.
    But social users remain very valuable.
    Short-form video continues to dominate.
    Time spent with social is almost flatlining.
    Facebook faces another year of user and time spent declines.
    Instagram keeps users on the hook and reels advertisers back in.
    Meta’s Advantage+ tools had a strong showing in Q4.
    TikTok remains social’s darling, but advertisers beware of a ban.
    Gen Z is the social video generation.
    What’s next for the ‘other’ platforms?
    What should advertisers look out for in 2023?
    Insider Intelligence Interviews
    Sources
    Media Gallery
    About This Report
    As social media grows more “lean-back” than “lean-in,” it’s settling into an era of more modest growth defined by short-form video consumption, stabilizing time spent, and ongoing challenges with Apple’s AppTrackingTransparency.
    Topics
    Social Media Ad Spending
    Social Media Users
    United States
    Table of Contents
    Executive Summary
    Social media is running out of headroom.
    But social users remain very valuable.
    Short-form video continues to dominate.
    Time spent with social is almost flatlining.
    Facebook faces another year of user and time spent declines.
    Instagram keeps users on the hook and reels advertisers back in.
    Meta’s Advantage+ tools had a strong showing in Q4.
    TikTok remains social’s darling, but advertisers beware of a ban.
    Gen Z is the social video generation.
    What’s next for the ‘other’ platforms?
    What should advertisers look out for in 2023?
    Insider Intelligence Interviews
    Sources
    Media Gallery
    Download PDF

    authors

    Max Willens

    Contributors

    Jasmine Enberg
    Principal Analyst
    Paul Verna
    Principal Analyst