The Daily: November’s great big monthly advertising, media, and retail quiz—AI pins, social buying, and Amazon Ads
On today's special podcast episode, we continue our monthly show where we discuss the biggest trends of the moment and the newest research, sprinkle in some analysis, and bundle it up into a quiz. Every month, three of our analysts representing their respective coverage area teams compete against each other. (We also encourage you to play along at home.) We keep a running score and will crown a winning team at the end of the year. Today, we cover the future of AI devices, shopping Amazon from your social feed, what happens now that the Hollywood strikes are over, and how Amazon is expanding. Tune in to the discussion with this month's contestants: our vice president of Briefings Stephanie Taglianetti and analysts Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf and Carina Perkins.
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Episode Transcript:
Marcus Johnson:
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Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
I wonder if the audiobook initiative will cannibalize some listening time from podcasts for Spotify, if that serves the same need on the consumer end and so we'll then... Consumers will just instead of spending their time washing dishes, listening to podcasts, if they'll switch over to audiobooks.
Marcus Johnson:
Hello everyone and welcome to the great big advertising media and retail quiz of the month, November 2023. A special episode of the Behind the Numbers Daily: e-Marketer Podcast. It's bloody early. This is going to be rough. This is our monthly show that discusses the biggest trends of the moment and newest research and bundles it up into a quiz with some analysis sprinkled in. I'm your host, Marcus Johnson. How does this episode work? Well, it's a big game show. Every month, three of our analyst teams, one media and advertising, two retail and three social and tech face off. We've been keeping a running score and at the end of the year we crown a winning team who will win a gift card each and of course claim the Grammy of the analyst world, the Victoria Cup, a trophy designed in pottery class by our very own Victoria who edits the show.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
It's not a cup, by the way.
Marcus Johnson:
It's not really a cup. No.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
I was disappointed to learn that last time.
Marcus Johnson:
It is a cup.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
It's a [inaudible 00:01:55].
Stephanie Taglianetti:
It is a cup.
Victoria:
There's a tiny cup on top. I promise there will be a cup involved.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
But it's not a cup.
Marcus Johnson:
You wanted an actual small cup to drink out of?
Stephanie Taglianetti:
I wanted a cup.
Marcus Johnson:
No.
Victoria:
Stephanie, I take custom orders if you want.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
I wanted to earn a cup.
Marcus Johnson:
The quiz has three rounds. Whoever has the most points wins the gold medal, three super-duper points for their teams running total. Second place takes the silver, you get two super-duper points. And third place gets you a glance of disapproval and a humiliatingly low one, not so super-duper point. See what I did? No. Okay, let's move on. Let's meet this month's contestants who are representing the different teams. Holding it down for the digital advertising and media team, senior analyst based in Virginia. It's Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Hello, hello.
Marcus Johnson:
I don't know why I went so big on the first one. Now I feel like I've got to keep that up.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
You got this.
Marcus Johnson:
Here we go. Anchoring the retail team, senior analyst based on the south coast of England. It's Carina Perkins.
Carina Perkins:
Good morning.
Marcus Johnson:
Hello there. And finally, making good things happen for the social and tech team, VP of briefings based in New Jersey. It's Stephanie Taglianetti.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Cheers mate. Good morning to you, mate.
Marcus Johnson:
Morning.
Carina Perkins:
Are you trying to do an English accent?
Marcus Johnson:
Yeah, she does this.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
That's not an English accent at all.
Marcus Johnson:
Yeah, strap in Carina. Certainly going to get rockier. Listeners, you can join in. Keep track of your own points total or match your score against these three folks at the end to see if you beat them or you can just listen. That's what most people do. Before we start though, let's check in on the overall team scores thus far. We started this quiz in April, so after seven months, retail is in third place, sadly with 13. And media have 14 points, so just ahead in second. And social and tech are currently in first place with 15 super-duper points.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
That's right.
Marcus Johnson:
It's all to play for folks since only two teams will go through to December's finals. The winner's circle, the big show, the Super Bowl, the World Cup of the great big advertising media and retail quiz of the month. So it's all to play for, the two best teams go through to the final in December. That was of course the overall super-duper point scores. We start with the in-game scores. Everyone's on zero. Victoria who edits the show will be keeping score.
Let's get on with it. Today's first round, I never news that. In this round we discuss the biggest stories of the moment with a question tied to each. Folks have five seconds to send me their answers via Slack. One point for a correct answer.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Five seconds.
Marcus Johnson:
Yeah, it's supposed to be five seconds.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
That's really short.
Marcus Johnson:
Yeah, no. It's really not that... It's pretty short. One point if you're correct for questions. One story, one related question. Let's do it. Question one. Humane's AI pin is what we're talking about. Computing company Humane has officially launched its AI pin, a two inch square magnetic wearable badge. The $700 device is controlled with your voice and hand gestures and lets users ask ChatGPT questions through it. Take pictures here, email inbox summaries, play music and get nutritional information by holding up food to the camera. Users will also need a $24 a month Humane subscription for another phone number and data provided by T-Mobile. Devices ship early 2024. You can pre-order now. It sounds like a bit of a commercial infomercial for it. It's not.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Are we sponsored by Humane this week?
Marcus Johnson:
They don't sponsor the show. No, but you're welcome Humane for free advertising. The question is, which tech company did the married couple who started Humane used to work at? Which tech company did the married couple who started Humane used to work at? So Carina says Apple, Evelyn says Amazon and Stephanie says Microsoft. All really good guesses, but Carina is correct. It's Apple. They both used to work for Apple. Folks, have you all seen this device, heard of? No one.
Carina Perkins:
Heard of.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Yeah.
Marcus Johnson:
They need the free advertising apparently. Okay, Carina you said heard of?
Carina Perkins:
Yes. I'm not sure I could give you a huge amount of in-depth information about it.
Marcus Johnson:
Okay. Yeah, I was wondering if it made its way to UK somehow, but yeah... So it's a little device. Someone described it as a Star Trek pin.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
It's literally like a boutonnière AI device, right?
Marcus Johnson:
Pretty much. And it sits right here and you're supposed to basically... Well they say it's not supposed to replace your smartphone, but it is trying to do similar things to the smartphone and so it can be interesting to see if this takes off. I mean there are a lot of different folks trying to work on the next form factor for AI to try and replace the smartphone. Obviously a huge market if you can do that, it's going to be very lucrative, but it can be very difficult for this to unseat the smartphone. But it does do a lot of pretty cool things that you wouldn't necessarily need to look down for and I think that they're going to have a chance with this if they can market this as taking the voice angle and market it as not having to look at your screens.
For example, say, hey, if you get this thing you can do your searches for, what is the maximum number of points someone can achieve on a Pac-Man score? It's 3.3 million, just in case you were wondering, which makes my 1,247 look pretty meaningless. But you could ask it questions, all kinds of questions as you're walking you don't have to pull your phone out. You could ask it what time your flight is today to remind yourself without pulling your phone out, get coffee shop directions without pulling your phone out. Play a song. You get the point. So I think it could have potential if it's marketed the right way, but otherwise people are going to say $700 [inaudible 00:07:40].
Carina Perkins:
You can ask your phone all of those things.
Marcus Johnson:
But you have to get it out.
Carina Perkins:
Oh, you have to get it out, right. You already have it on you.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Have you seen what it looks like? It looks like a tin of Altoids that you're just like affixing to your chest.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Yeah, I was about to ask. The size of it really matters I feel like.
Marcus Johnson:
It does matter, yeah.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Also, regular pins without AI have been out of style for a very long time.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
It is nowhere near a regular pin. It's like this big.
Marcus Johnson:
Yeah, you'd have to go black on black to make it work, for sure.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Nice.
Marcus Johnson:
Let's move on to the next question.
Carina Perkins:
I'm not convinced.
Marcus Johnson:
Sorry, Humane. I did my best. Let's move on to the second question we've got for you here. We're talking about shopping Amazon from your social feed. So Facebook, Instagram, and Snapchat users are now able to shop and buy select Amazon products directly from their feeds. So now Facebook, Instagram and Snapchat folks can see real-time pricing in their feeds, prime eligibility on products, estimated delivery times, product details from within the ad in their respective apps. According to a September Jungle Scout survey, most folks, 51% start their online shopping on Amazon. So it seems like a pretty good partnership. So 51% start on Amazon, then it's search engines at 39%. But where is the third most likely place Americans will start their shopping search? Where is the third most likely place Americans will start their shopping search?
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Can you repeat the top two again?
Marcus Johnson:
Yeah, Amazon and then search engines. So which platform or place will people go? Carina says brand websites. Evelyn says social media. And Stephanie says Instagram. We're forgetting a very big one here, folks.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
What is it? Bing.
Marcus Johnson:
Walmart.com.
Carina Perkins:
That's a brand website though no, it's a retail brand. That's what I meant, online stores.
Marcus Johnson:
Don't try and finagle yourself a point.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
I don't know. I think...
Carina Perkins:
No, I think that's... Yeah, I said directly at a retailer website, brand website, online store.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
I think that does count.
Marcus Johnson:
But it's just... What do you mean you think it should count? You're going against Carina.
Carina Perkins:
Thanks Steph.
Marcus Johnson:
Unbelievable.
Carina Perkins:
I think it was the closest answer.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
How about a half point?
Marcus Johnson:
Half point, we don't really do those here. Let me check in with Victoria. Victoria?
Stephanie Taglianetti:
You can always do that.
Marcus Johnson:
Who edits the show? It's up to you.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Motion for a half point.
Marcus Johnson:
As head of scores.
Victoria:
Oh, I don't handle the scoring. I just put the numbers in the boxes.
Marcus Johnson:
Okay. Nevermind.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Put in 0.5 for Carina.
Marcus Johnson:
No, because it's too vague.
Carina Perkins:
[inaudible 00:10:20].
Stephanie Taglianetti:
I tried. I really tried.
Carina Perkins:
Thanks Steph.
Marcus Johnson:
I don't know why you tried because you were in competition, but it's very...
Carina Perkins:
It's not all about the winning.
Marcus Johnson:
[inaudible 00:10:29]. Yeah, apparently.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
I'm a good colleague and I support Carina.
Marcus Johnson:
Sorry to everyone else on the social and tech team who Stephanie supposed to be representing.
Carina Perkins:
Stop trying to pit us against each other.
Marcus Johnson:
That's literally the point of the game, but anyway... No, it's not. No, that is a point in the game, but brand websites, it's not the right answer. It's walmart.com. YouTube is fourth, 23%. Then it goes Facebook, Instagram, Target, TikTok, and then Pinterest after that. This tie-ups interesting. Carina, you covered some retail for us. What'd you make of this relationship between Amazon and being able to shop Amazon on your social feeds? At least if you are Facebook, Instagram, or Snapchat?
Carina Perkins:
Yeah, I think it makes sense. I think that the shopping journey isn't kind of linear or straightforward anymore and people want to be able to buy wherever they are and engage with brands at various points along the shopper journey. So it makes sense for that type.
Marcus Johnson:
Yeah. I was reading a piece by Rachel Wolf, who's our retail analyst who writes for The Briefing and she was saying this is a great way to unlock impulse purchases. Pointing out that while most consumers go to Amazon when they have a specific product in mind or need an item quickly, a larger social media presence could help Amazon unlock more revenues from impulse purchases, which happen to be the primary drivers for TikTok shops growth, she was noting.
Carina Perkins:
Yeah, social commerce is all about discovery and that's the real advantage it has over some other channels.
Marcus Johnson:
All right folks, let's move on to the third question here. The actor strike is over. After four months, the actor strike is over. After they reached a deal with the studios and production companies, the actors were able to secure increases in minimum compensation, pension and health plans, protection from threats posed by AI, bonuses if their streaming shows or movies do well and more money for background workers. The question is, in which month did the writer strike start? In which month did the writer's strike start? Not the actors one we were just talking about, the writer's one. Carina says June. Evelyn says April. And Stephanie says July. And somehow they're all wrong.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Dang, it was May, wasn't it?
Marcus Johnson:
Because it was May 2nd.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
I almost said no May and then I... Ah, darn.
Marcus Johnson:
How did you all miss? A game of Battleship, just so close. It was May. It was May 2nd. What do we think...
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Well, April was very close to May 2nd.
Marcus Johnson:
April was... It still doesn't count. What's this really close points you guys...
Carina Perkins:
Half point.
Marcus Johnson:
Half point. A third of a point, please. No.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Something.
Marcus Johnson:
Writers strike. Yeah, so actors strikes over, writer strikes over, but it doesn't mean that the industry is just going to snap back. There's a lot that's got to get through because there's going to be less shows made and movies made as a result. This was going to happen anyway. So now there's going to be less work to go around. They have to pay these folks more money. So the pot of money, it may have got bigger, but with less movies and TV shows being made, it might be harder for folks. Rather, it's kind of vicious irony of getting this deal done. They also have to get things back up and running. We're about to run into Christmas and Hanukkah and a bunch of other holidays, so they have to wait till next year. So it's still a bit of a mess even though we are back to having shows and movies again at some point.
But yeah, the movie industry wasn't exactly in great shape before the strikes. Analysts expecting the number of shows and movies made to be cut by a third from 2022 to 2025. Hulu and Netflix are the only profitable streaming platforms. So it's not like the space was making a ton of money beforehand. And according to Box Office Mojo, 2022 movie theater ticket sales in North America still not close, not very close at all to pre-pandemic 2019. So not in great shape.
Let's move to Google earnings to the final question. And we're talking about recently reported Q3 earnings first to set the table, it made $60 billion from ads, up nearly 10% year-on-year. Its search business grew 11%, accounting for three quarters of its ad business. We estimate that Google has a leading 27% share of the US digital ad dollars, 27% of the pie, Meta 21, and Amazon has 13, but has been gaining on folks. The question is, in what year did Amazon start making more money from ads than Instagram? So we have Meta 21%, but we break Instagram and Facebook up and we have individual shares for those folks. So in what year did Amazon start making more money from ads than Instagram? Carina says 2021. Evelyn 2023. Stephanie 2021.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Are we all wrong again?
Stephanie Taglianetti:
We're all wrong.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
It's 2022, isn't it?
Carina Perkins:
Points all around.
Marcus Johnson:
It's going to be a low scoring affair. 2020 is when...
Carina Perkins:
Oh, I nearly said 2020.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Wow. I was wrong.
Marcus Johnson:
A lot of nearly's in this game.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
I almost said 2020.
Marcus Johnson:
Amazon, they shot past Instagram in terms of share of the US ad pie back in 2020. This year, Amazon overtook standalone Facebook, still not bigger than the combines force of Facebook plus Instagram equals Meta, but they are on their way it seems.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
So that question was really not about Google earnings at all.
Marcus Johnson:
Nope. Curveball. See what I did? That's how I led into it. But I took you on the journey. All right, that's all we've got time for for that round. Let's move to the second round. Spoiled for multiple choice. So you might have noticed that I didn't check in on the scores after the first round.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Because there's no scores.
Carina Perkins:
I had one point.
Marcus Johnson:
Yeah, Carina's got one point.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Carina's got one point and the rest of us have zero.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Oh, Carina does, okay.
Marcus Johnson:
Pretty easy. So that's where we find ourselves. This is a multiple choice round where we dig... An easier round, thank goodness. Where we dig a little deeper into one of the topics from round one. Today we're focusing on the digital giants because they all just reported earnings. And so we're going to talk a bit about those folks, not necessarily earnings, but we're going to talk about those companies. One point for a right answer. Three questions. Let's do it. We start with Amazon. So the question is, what new perk is Amazon about to start offering its Prime members? What new perk is Amazon about to start offering its Prime members? Is it one, a free annual car servicing? Two, low cost primary healthcare? Or three, two free tickets to Disney theme parks when you sign up to Prime?
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Do you mean A, B, C?
Marcus Johnson:
I can do, yeah. A, you get it. Yep. A, B or C?
Carina Perkins:
Oh, no, I want to take that back. Can I change mine?
Marcus Johnson:
Oh, you can change yours. I nearly said it out loud. Yep. Still wrong. No, I'm kidding. Carina says B. Evelyn says two.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
I can put mine up for you.
Marcus Johnson:
And Stephanie says primary healthcare. So one way or another they're all correct.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Finally.
Marcus Johnson:
Even though you had all different answers, but yes, low cost primary healthcare is what it is offering. Amazon's going to charge Prime customers $100 a year for annual access to one medical, it's newly acquired primary care service offers virtual and in-person visits and testing for additional payments. I'll ask the US-based folks, what do you think of this? Is this something that moves the needle for Prime?
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
I don't know. I mean Prime already has such high penetration in the US. I don't know that healthcare is going to be the thing that sways that small percentage of folks that haven't already bought in, but it is, I mean, it's a nice perk for those that already have it, I would say.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Yep, agree. Because also it costs $100 a year, but the prerequisite is already having a Prime membership that costs far more than that. So I think it's more about tapping into Prime subscribers already. Also, not surprising, considering everything Amazon's been doing within healthcare for the past few years.
Marcus Johnson:
Yeah, Prime households, as you were saying Evelyn, just looking it up now, 71% and growing somehow. So everyone has access to Prime or can steal someone's Prime it seems. The price is interesting though. If you're a one medical person, if you just have one medical, this primary care service standalone, it's $100 a year and Prime is 140 for the year. So you kind of might as well almost get it, get Prime as opposed to just having one medical because Prime is 140 and you get Prime plus one medical, or you can just have standalone one medical for 100. So the pricing is pretty interesting.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
So I guess the question is then how many one medical subscribers or patients or clients whatever, don't have Prime? That's the potential incremental audience gain there, but I don't know, do you have that number?
Marcus Johnson:
I don't know. I'm not sure. That's a good question though. It is a bit of a bare bones offering, so it's not an incredibly comprehensive healthcare plan. So there's that as well, which was a point, I think it was Zach Stambaugh was making, which I think is a really good one. One of our analysts.
All right folks, move to our second question here. We're talking about Meta. And in Europe, Meta for the first time is offering ad free versions of Facebook and Instagram to comply with evolving European regulations on privacy. To protect folks privacy, Europe's highest court just barred Meta from combining data collected about users across platforms, Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and outside apps and sites, unless it got real consent from people, which is why it's doing this. Question is how much will the ad free tier cost per month on mobile devices? How much will the ad free tier cost per month on mobile devices? $11 a month, $14 a month, or $17 a month? 11, 14 or 17? A, B or C? Carina says B. Evelyn says 14. And Stephanie says A. The correct answer is 14, which is B, $14 a month.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
The NOYB, None of Your Business is a privacy advocacy law firm over there in the EU that just submitted a complaint to the Austrian data protection authority that this is not an adequate workaround for Meta, that they're having to pay what they refer to as a privacy fee to exercise their right under GDPR to data privacy. So that is interesting. And for anyone who is a privacy buff, I know YB is tied to the famous Max Schrems of Schrems one and two fame. So this should be interesting. I was waiting for this to happen. This might not be sustainable but workaround for Meta, so we'll see.
Carina Perkins:
Yeah, I think there's definitely going to be some kickback against this from campaigns, and I think it's an interesting move by Meta because I don't think they really are launching this on the assumption that many people are going to sign up to it.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
No.
Carina Perkins:
I think they're kind of calculating the potential loss if people do opt out and they're saying, okay, fine, you can pay this. But really I think they're working on the assumption that most people are going to say, I'm not paying 14 pounds a month for access. Fine, you can just track my data and serve me up targeted ads.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
But of course, is that really consent? Is that really a choice?
Marcus Johnson:
Yeah. Pricing a thing where you know folks are going to say no, that's all right, just do the other thing you were doing before. Not a lot of interest either. There was a Civic Science survey that came out right when these launched, 82% of people, which is, as you can tell from the number most who use Facebook and Instagram would not be interested in paying for an ad free subscription option. And the 14% who said that they would, because some like I said, they didn't know or opted out. 14% who said that they would be interested said they'd pay up to $10 a month for it, which is obviously below listed price.
Carina Perkins:
It'll be interesting to see what happens with user numbers, whether anyone just opts out altogether and kind of protests.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Another thing I think is interesting is that it's more expensive on mobile than it is on desktop because of the fees that Google and Apple charge to in-app purchasing fees. So I wonder if maybe we'll start to see some folks migrate...
Carina Perkins:
Social desktop.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Use their social platforms on desktop instead.
Marcus Johnson:
Just carrying their laptops around.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Just to save three bucks if they want to go in on the subscription.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
I doubt. I highly doubt that.
Carina Perkins:
I'll be amazed to see many people [inaudible 00:22:51].
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
That's a stretch.
Marcus Johnson:
Save those three bucks. Yeah, it's 14 on mobile. 11 on web. All right, let's move to our final question of the round. Spotify is the last digital giant we're talking about. The audio streaming Giant recently told us that it was in good shape. It is approaching the 600 million users mark, continues to make enough money to turn a profit. But what did Spotify just offer British and Australian and next year American premium subscribers? Was it 10% off merch bought through Spotify's platform? Was it 20% off its new higher quality audio tier? Or was it 15 free hours of audiobook listening per month? Was it merch, audio quality tier or audiobook hours? Carina says C, free hours. Evelyn says C, free hours. And Stephanie incorrectly says B.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Of course.
Marcus Johnson:
The higher quality audio tier doesn't exist yet, but there has been talk about it. We're just waiting for it to come out. You'd think it would come out by now, but it hasn't, but it's the free hours of audiobook listening per month. It's across... So 150,000 titles. Spotify launched audiobooks a year ago and struck deals with the largest US publishers, hundreds of others. So there's a lot there. What do you guys make of this initiative? Think it helps?
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Sure. Why not?
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Everyone likes something free, right?
Marcus Johnson:
Round three.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Yeah, I love audiobooks and I mean I personally will still continue to use my library subscription to access them for free unlimited hours. But Spotify is trying to get into the audiobook sector and this can't hurt that initiative.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
But he specifically said help.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Good point.
Marcus Johnson:
Net positive?
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Will it help?
Marcus Johnson:
Yeah, there was some reading from this saying that there's a good tie between podcasts and audiobooks because if there's a podcast that could recommend an audiobook on that podcast or vice versa, and if you're listening to certain types of podcasts, there's a chance you'll be interested in certain types of audiobooks. If there's an author who's been on the podcast, then they can serve you up their audiobook. So there's a good tie up. And then also, secondly, the amount of time, 15 hours a month doesn't sound like a lot.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
That's like two audiobooks.
Marcus Johnson:
Yeah, exactly. And most people read about, I think it was a book or a book and a half according to Pure Research a month. So it's plenty for the average person. If you're a incredibly fast reader, then maybe it's not enough, but it's more than enough.
Carina Perkins:
Fast reader. Listen really quickly.
Marcus Johnson:
I read pretty fast.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Well, you can listen to them on 1.5 speed.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
1.5, yeah.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
But I do wonder if that's going to cannibalize.
Marcus Johnson:
If anyone's listening to this podcast at 1.5, stop it.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Sarah Lebo does that I heard.
Marcus Johnson:
It's going to sound weird. Does she?
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
She listens on...
Marcus Johnson:
Could you imagine the Retail show?
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
On quick speed and reads the transcript.
Marcus Johnson:
Furious.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Sorry to expose you, Sarah. But I wonder...
Marcus Johnson:
Let me Slack her right now.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
I wonder if the audiobook initiative will cannibalize some listening time from podcasts for Spotify, if that serves the same need on the consumer end. And so then if consumers will just, instead of spending their time washing dishes, listening to podcasts, if they'll switch over to audiobooks, which is what I do. Sometimes I'll decide, hey, I'm going to listen to a longer form audio format than my usual podcast and switch over to an audiobook that I would normally spend that time listening to podcasts.
Marcus Johnson:
It's a great point. I think it will. We've had a few other analysts, we talked about this once or twice in the last month. Paul Briggs, I believe was one of the folks who had mentioned this as well. He thinks that that listening time will come out of that same pot. All right folks, let's count the scores after, it's pretty bleak, after two rounds.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
It's not that bad.
Marcus Johnson:
It's pretty bad.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
I think me and Carina got all three of those correct.
Marcus Johnson:
Yeah, it's pretty bad for certain people. Not named Carina and Evelyn.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
That's right.
Marcus Johnson:
Where are the final scores?
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
It should be 4, 3, 2.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
I think I have one point.
Marcus Johnson:
Why did the final scores...
Victoria:
It's 4, 3, 1. So Marcus, if you look at the end of round two, it's total after the round.
Marcus Johnson:
She is terrible.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
At least I'm honest.
Marcus Johnson:
Stewart, who made the sheet...
Victoria:
Stewart really made [inaudible 00:27:12].
Marcus Johnson:
And tries to run the team, but clearly is not doing a good job. Yeah, this sheet is awful. But this final score... Thank you, V. The final score is...
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Not as awful as my current score.
Marcus Johnson:
After round four... Jokes about yourself, well played.
Carina Perkins:
Half a point.
Marcus Johnson:
Stephanie has... No.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Yeah, half a point. And then we'll round up at the end.
Marcus Johnson:
Stephanie has one and a half points.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Yay.
Marcus Johnson:
She doesn't, just the one after two rounds. What's happening, Stephanie? Evelyn has three and Carina has four. So it's incredibly low scoring, but they're all bunched together, so it's all to play for somehow as we head into the final round, it's closest wins. This is the round where the closest guess wins the most points. Three questions, closest guess for each gets three points, second closest gets two, furthest away from the right answer, just gets one. And we are going back to the subjects from the first round. So we're talking about AI wearables and Humane's AI pin again for question one. How many AI pins did Humane say they plan to sell in the first year? How many AI pins did Humane say they plan to sell in the first year? For context, because that's a hard thing to guess, Apple sold nearly 400,000 iPods in the year after its 2001 launch. If that made anyone else feel old, join the club.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Oh my gosh, this is like a wild guess.
Marcus Johnson:
Given your score, Stephanie, I feel like most of your guesses have fallen into that category.
Carina Perkins:
I feel like this is how much they think they're going to sell, right? Not realistically how much they're going to sell.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
No. How many they think they're going to...
Marcus Johnson:
They plan to sell.
Carina Perkins:
They'd like to sell.
Marcus Johnson:
Stephanie hasn't written in yet.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Because it's just such a guess.
Marcus Johnson:
Stephanie says...
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Well, you can't get it any more wrong than that one time I guessed 240 billion on the AR device, that one time.
Marcus Johnson:
Yeah, you made up a number. You invented a [inaudible 00:29:24] or something.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Well, I just said C.
Marcus Johnson:
Stephanie put C which is the correct answer. No. Carina says 150,000. Evelyn says 200,000. Stephanie says 250,000. They're all actually pretty good guesses. I'd have been all over the place, but Carina is closest. 100,000 is what they're going for, which means Evelyn is second closest and Stephanie is third closest.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
My gosh.
Marcus Johnson:
But they are all really, really...
Stephanie Taglianetti:
This is not my day.
Marcus Johnson:
No. They're all really decent. Yeah, all pretty good guesses. 100,000. It's ambitious. We'll see.
Carina Perkins:
Optimistic.
Marcus Johnson:
Yep. All right folks, let's move to our second question. Shopping Amazon from your social feed is what we were talking about before, and we'll stick with the kind of social commerce is what we're talking about. What share of Americans are social commerce buyers? What share of Americans are social commerce buyers? According to our forecasts, the definition of one of those people is over 14 years old who have bought one thing in a calendar year. What share of Americans are social commerce buyers? Stephanie says 250,000. Pull yourself together, Stephanie. Carina says unnecessarily specific, 37.8. Evelyn says 28%. And Stephanie says 35%. Carina is hideously close. I think it might be. I rounded up, but it's pretty much spot on. It's 38%. So Carina, you nailed it.
Carina Perkins:
You rounded up on that, by the way.
Marcus Johnson:
Yep. You got it to the decimal, which wasn't needed, but well played. Carina gets the most points and then Stephanie gets the second most with 35%, and then Evelyn with 28%.
Carina Perkins:
It's not far off China. China's around 40% somewhere.
Marcus Johnson:
Wow. Really? A lot more [inaudible 00:31:25] really.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Have y'all bought anything off of social media?
Marcus Johnson:
Never.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Yeah. TikTok. A lot of TikTok, guys. A lot.
Carina Perkins:
I'm one of only a quarter of the UK population that has bought something over social commerce.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
I still don't trust... The number of times I've seen videos on social media of people having bought things that arrive two months later and are not what they thought that they purchased, just has totally turned me off of it. And I just have...
Carina Perkins:
I've had pretty good experiences.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Oh, there you go.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Only good experiences on TikTok by influencers who I follow and watch. I watched several videos before I buy a product, but yep. Buy through TikTok shop a lot.
Marcus Johnson:
This has become a big commercial for TikTok Shop and Humane.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
I don't know. I don't think we're...
Carina Perkins:
I'm not sure about Humane.
Marcus Johnson:
Not really Humane. Yeah, sorry Humane. It's a lot of people. Yeah, 38%. So it's over a hundred million Americans and growing somewhat. US social commerce dollars, they're really growing. Expected to more than double in the next four years. And today, social commerce dollars account for 6% of all online shopping, 6%. And I think it's going to be 8% in a few years time. So that's going up too. All right folks, let's move to our third and final question of the round of the game.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
I thought there were four in this round.
Marcus Johnson:
Just three.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Nevermind.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Hungry for more points, Evelyn?
Marcus Johnson:
You guys could use four.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
You all want to sweep this thing? [inaudible 00:32:55].
Marcus Johnson:
It's been rough. Okay, final question. The writer's strike is what we're revisiting, talking about movie ticket sales. So I kind of hinted at this, but I didn't give you an exact number. How much had movie ticket sales in North America recovered in 2022 compared to 2019? So as a percentage, 2019 was a certain percentage, let's say 100%. How much had movie ticket sales in 2022 recovered according to Box Office Mojo?
Carina Perkins:
I'm not sure I understand the question. How much did they bounce back?
Marcus Johnson:
Yeah. How close are they to the pre-pandemic 2019? So if the pre-pandemic 2019 on an index was 100, how close to that are they?
Carina Perkins:
Oh right, okay, got you.
Marcus Johnson:
As of 2022. It was incredibly poorly worded question. I can't tell if that was your previous answer.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
No, no.
Marcus Johnson:
It was your previous answer.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
It's going to be somewhere there.
Carina Perkins:
I've gone too high on this. I've gone too high.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
It's going to be similar.
Marcus Johnson:
Oh my God, everyone's... One answer please, people. What is happening?
Stephanie Taglianetti:
That's one answer.
Marcus Johnson:
Okay. Not if you're Evelyn.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
35 was my last one.
Marcus Johnson:
What are the two stars?
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
That's my real answer.
Carina Perkins:
What? Is everyone doing two answers? Do I get two?
Stephanie Taglianetti:
No, I only done one.
Marcus Johnson:
No. No one gets two answers.
Carina Perkins:
I'm doing another answer.
Marcus Johnson:
No, don't do another answer.
Carina Perkins:
It's got a star.
Marcus Johnson:
And don't add stars. Carina don't do what Evelyn's doing. I don't know why everyone's adding stars.
Carina Perkins:
Take my second answer, please.
Marcus Johnson:
There's a footnote to your... No, I'm taking...
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
You can take the first one if you want.
Carina Perkins:
Yeah, take the first one.
Marcus Johnson:
Carina, which one do you want?
Carina Perkins:
I don't know. I mean, I think either you take the first or you take the second from both of us.
Marcus Johnson:
You pick.
Carina Perkins:
You pick.
Marcus Johnson:
No, you can't put down two... What would that be like if it was Who Wants to Be a Millionaire? And I'm going to give you two answers and you pick, Chris.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
And you pick the one that you think should be picked.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Who Wants to be Millionaire is multiple choice. That's different.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
So you say it's either A or C, you pick.
Marcus Johnson:
Any other game show is what I meant to say. A or C, you pick.
Carina Perkins:
I'll go with my first. I think it's wrong. I think I'm going to kick myself.
Marcus Johnson:
Okay. Carina goes with 65%. Evelyn, you are going with?
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
You can go with my first one.
Marcus Johnson:
87%. And Stephanie goes with either 40 or her second answer, 40.1.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Because everyone was giving two.
Carina Perkins:
It's a close call.
Marcus Johnson:
Very wrong. Carina apparently knows the numbers off by heart. 65%, spot on.
Carina Perkins:
No way. That was the first thing that... Imagine how annoyed I'd be if I'd chosen my second answer.
Marcus Johnson:
Yeah, that's why I gave you the chance because I didn't want to pick for you.
Carina Perkins:
Okay, nice.
Marcus Johnson:
65%. Carina is closest. I think that means Stephanie is second closest.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
It was the 0.1 that did me...
Marcus Johnson:
And Evelyn... That brought you just so much... That much closer. And Evelyn is furthest away. Surprisingly though, you would've thought it would've [inaudible 00:36:07].
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
I could have sworn I'd heard something that was almost completely recovered to 2019 levels. But I guess I made that up. Maybe I'm just a really big movie person.
Marcus Johnson:
This year, I think... This year up to October, I believe that we had gotten to where we were full year 2022. So this year is planning to be closer to the number that you put down. So that might have been, but we're comparing 2022. So may be that's where what you were thinking.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Barbenheimer. That's wow.
Carina Perkins:
The Barbenheimer effect.
Marcus Johnson:
And then the shutdown. The strikes did not help. All right, that's all we've got time for for that round. Let's have a quick glance at the scores. And no need for the tiebreaker.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Carina killed it.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
She did.
Carina Perkins:
Yeah, thanks. I think I did all right on that.
Marcus Johnson:
Yep. Stephanie managed to pull out seven points, which ain't bad, considering you had one going to round three. Evelyn comes in second place with 10. And Carina runs away with it with 18 points.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Yeah, Carina.
Marcus Johnson:
Well played to Carina.
Carina Perkins:
Thanks [inaudible 00:37:05].
Marcus Johnson:
What does that mean?
Stephanie Taglianetti:
18.
Marcus Johnson:
What does that mean?
Carina Perkins:
Wow, I won. I can't believe I won. Does that mean retail is back in the game?
Stephanie Taglianetti:
You really, really won.
Marcus Johnson:
All right folks, let's head to the overall scores. Carina has three super-duper points for her team, so she got the most. And then Evelyn has two super-duper points. And Stephanie has one. So if you add those to the totals somehow everyone is tied on 16 super-duper points each.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Wait, really?
Carina Perkins:
Wait, 16? No.
Marcus Johnson:
Everyone is tied on 16 because Carina...
Carina Perkins:
No, I thought retail had 15.
Marcus Johnson:
Retail had 13 plus the three super-duper is 16. Social and tech had 15 plus the one is 16. Advertising media had 14 plus the two, which is also 16. So with everyone tied, we of course have to change the rules and everyone goes through to the final in December. Everyone goes through to the finals. When we started this, I was like, this is going to be real bad. One team's going to run away with it. It's going to be like the F1, Max Verstappen won halfway through the season. What's the point? But no, actually it's pretty close. Heading into the... As close as it can be heading into the December finals, so we will see you guys there. Thank you so much to my contestants today. Thank you so much to Stephanie.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Yeah, thank you.
Marcus Johnson:
Thank you to Evelyn.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
Thank you, Marcus.
Marcus Johnson:
And thank you to this week's winner, Carina.
Carina Perkins:
Thanks Marcus. Best episode ever.
Marcus Johnson:
Yeah, but you're all winners because you're all going through to the finals. So congratulations to all the teams who somehow managed to tie going into December. Thank you to Victoria who edits the show, keeps score and does pretty much everything else. Thank you to James who copy edits it. And Stuart who does some stuff, but no one really knows because he kind bailed on his...
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Makes impossible spreadsheets.
Marcus Johnson:
Yeah, thank you. Exactly. Makes impossible spreadsheets. Thank you to Sophie who posts on our social media. Thanks to everyone for listening in. We'll be back with the December quiz finals at the end of December. We hope to see you tomorrow for the Behind the Numbers Weekly listen: e-marketer Podcast.
Okay, I have to get something out first of all, there's a chance I'm going to start singing Cher just at some point throughout this.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Wait, what?
Marcus Johnson:
Yeah, it's in my head. I can't get the bloody song out of my head.
Victoria:
What era are we talking about?
Carina Perkins:
Which one?
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Which song? Let us hear it please.
Marcus Johnson:
The Shoop Shoop Song. It's in His Kiss. I don't know where it came from, but it's been there for a while. So if that just happens, if you just hear like a humming. Yeah, just go with it. Just go with it.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
You got it.
Marcus Johnson:
All right, I've got that out of the way. I feel better.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
That's why he's been in a funk.
Marcus Johnson:
Yeah, I'm all over the place.
Stephanie Taglianetti:
Just needed to get that off his chest.
Marcus Johnson:
Yeah, because of this.
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf:
[inaudible 00:39:58].
Marcus Johnson:
Karaoke tonight so I'll get [inaudible 00:39:59].
