In today’s podcast episode, we dive into how Apple Intelligence will move the AI usage needle and discuss which companies are poised to shape the future of artificial intelligence. "In Other News", we cover Bank of America’s recent outage and the risks associated with digital banking. Join host Marcus Johnson and analysts Jacob Bourne and Gadjo Sevilla for the conversation.
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Episode Transcript:
Marcus Johnson (00:00):
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Gadjo Sevilla (00:18):
They can all benefit from the AI infusion. And we could really see that they're willing to spend to get to where they are. So I think those combination of that, plus playing in open source gives them a lot of room to go.
Marcus Johnson (00:40):
Hey gang, it's Tuesday, October 15th. Gadjo, Jacob and listeners, welcome to the Behind the Numbers Daily, an eMarketer podcast made possible by TikTok. I'm Marcus. Today, I'm joined by two gentlemen. We start with our technology analyst. He's based in California. We call him Jacob Bourne.
Jacob Bourne (00:56):
Thanks for having me, Marcus.
Marcus Johnson (00:57):
Hey fella. Thanks for coming back on. We're also joined by one of our senior analysts who writes for our technology and artificial intelligence briefings based in New York City. It's Gadjo Sevilla.
Gadjo Sevilla (01:09):
Hi Jacob. Hi Marcus. Happy to be with you guys.
Marcus Johnson (01:11):
Hello sir. Hello. All right gents. Fact of the day. What are American trains carrying?
(01:20):
So I don't know if you guys feel this way. Anytime I see, you see there's bafflingly long trains cruising by, I always think to myself, "What are they hauling?" I'm always very curious. So according to the Bureau of Transportation Stats and the American Association of Railroads, 42% of train freight, so most is oil, coal, and natural gas.
Jacob Bourne (01:41):
Wow.
Marcus Johnson (01:42):
So energy things. 21%, that's the second place, is agriculture products. And then 13% construction materials. So those three categories-
Jacob Bourne (01:52):
I was going to say lumber-
Marcus Johnson (01:53):
... categories. Oh okay, nice. Those three categories. Oh, well actually, you know what? They've broken that out, interestingly. So let me go through it. So those three categories I mentioned, so oil, coal and gas, agriculture and construction materials, those three account for 75% of all rail freight. The rest they say is chemicals, minerals, wood, waste, and vehicles. However, construction materials are wood, lumber. So I don't know how that.
Jacob Bourne (01:53):
Yeah.
Marcus Johnson (02:17):
Maybe wood before it's-
Jacob Bourne (02:19):
There might be a technical difference between the lumber turn and then the-
Marcus Johnson (02:21):
Turned into building materials.
Jacob Bourne (02:22):
Yeah.
Marcus Johnson (02:23):
But that's what's on trains. And it's all moved on America's 140,000 miles of rail network. For context, that's enough track to stretch around the world six times, which is remarkable.
Jacob Bourne (02:36):
A lot of track.
Marcus Johnson (02:37):
Yes.
Gadjo Sevilla (02:39):
A lot of maintenance too. Imagine.
Marcus Johnson (02:41):
That's true. That is very true. Anyway, today's real topic, which AI companies are shaping the future?
(02:52):
All right, we're talking AI companies up top, and then we have one in other news story where we're going to be talking about what happens when your digital bank goes down.
(03:00):
We start with the lead, and gents, let's start here. So ChatGPT will be two years old on November 30th, believe it or not. We've been covering AI a lot more ever since that date like a lot of other folks. A new release here, a content partnership there, but who's really shaping the AI market? That's one of the questions we wanted to answer in today's episode.
(03:22):
So I asked two of our AI experts to create a pie chart each, showing which artificial intelligence companies will shape the next few years and have the biggest influence on the AI space.
(03:33):
One such company, I don't know what their pie charts look like. They've not told me yet, they've not told each other. So we'll find out together. But one such company or could be on their list is Apple.
(03:42):
So just to kick off the conversation before we get to those pie charts of AI companies that we think is going to influence the future, Apple, they're about to release Apple Intelligence's first wave of AI features on iPhone, iPad and Mac on October 28th I believe, over a month after the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Pro launch. Mark Gurman in Bloomberg's Power On newsletter was saying this. John-Anthony DiSotto of TechRadar was noting that this first batch of Apple Intelligence features will include writing tools for proofreading and rewriting smart replies to quickly reply to messages, notification summaries, cleanup in photos, and a redesign of Siri.
(04:21):
He then explains that other features like ChatGPT integration, Genmoji and original image creation tool Image Playground are expected to arrive with iOS 18.2 before the end of the year with Siri's major Apple Intelligence overhaul due in March 2025.
(04:38):
So these features are going to be rolled out in waves. March 2025, that's when Siri will be able to carry out tasks for you across multiple apps and using your information as context. So an example might be your phone recognizes, there's an email from a colleague. And that colleague wants to move a meeting time that conflicts with a doctor's appointment and Siri could recognize what's happening and suggest some alternative times before you even see your colleague's email. So they could say, "There's an email come in. It conflicts with something. Here's some other times that might work. Do you want me to reply to your colleague?"
(05:09):
All right gents, with all that, Jacob, I'll start with you. How much will Apple Intelligence move the AI usage needle in October by the end of the year and then again in March?
Jacob Bourne (05:20):
Yeah, I think it has a good shot at really increasing usage beginning in October when it's released. And that's due in part because survey data from a Harvard economist actually shows that at least in the US people are really, average individuals not even for work are using AI pretty regularly. And so having it be integrated into something so commonplace as an iPhone, I think you're going to see increased usage and adoption from that. The iPhone is such a popular tech device. I think it would've been probably ideal if it had been timed for the iPhone 16's initial release. But that said, some people might still be mulling an upgrade and I think Apple Intelligence could spur them to make that upgrade and of course then they'll likely be using GenAI after that even if they work for.
Marcus Johnson (06:16):
Do you think that it will move the needle 1 out of 10 in October, 2 out of 10 by the end of the year, and then 7 out of 10 when all the features come out in March? Or what does that rollout look like in terms of impact?
Jacob Bourne (06:27):
I would say maybe 6 out of 10 in October.
Marcus Johnson (06:31):
Really? Okay, interesting.
Jacob Bourne (06:33):
Maybe down to 5 out of 10 by the end of the year. I think still robust because you have holiday shopping. iPhones make good gifts.
Marcus Johnson (06:41):
Yeah, great point.
Jacob Bourne (06:42):
The March updates, it depends on, things could change between now and March and it really depends on what kind of updates they're going to make. I would drop that influence down a bit more for the March update unless it's something really big. But if it's more iterative, yeah, I think it doesn't move the needle quite as much.
Marcus Johnson (07:00):
Yeah. Gadjo, would you agree with that analysis of the impact of the rollout over the next six months?
Gadjo Sevilla (07:06):
Yeah, I do agree. I think there's been a dampening for iPhone 16 demand. In fact, I read somewhere that they're shipping I think 3 million fewer models just because the supply chain sees that the demand is not that high.
(07:22):
But that said, I mean you have to realize it's not every year that Apple has an update of this magnitude and it's something that they do not fully control given that they're still testing it. And even when it comes out, Apple Intelligence will be a beta feature. So there's a lot of asterisks there.
(07:39):
Also, it's not going to be available in a lot of markets. It's not going to be in the EU. It's not going to be in China.
Marcus Johnson (07:46):
True.
Gadjo Sevilla (07:46):
It's North America and English only I think once it ships, and it's iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 16 and Pro, right? So that's a small subset really of Apple users right now. It doesn't mean it's not going to change. Once they can demonstrate that these features, which they've cleverly integrated them into apps that people already use. So it's more of an option rather than a huge lift in terms of learning something new, which is just going to work proactively. At least that's how they market it.
Jacob Bourne (08:19):
Yeah. And Gadjo, I agree too, that it's a limiting factor that they made it so it's only on the 15 or newer. But I think when the more affordable SE, the next SE model comes out, that could also spur more sales too because it's more affordable. Plus you get Apple Intelligence as well on that.
Gadjo Sevilla (08:40):
Absolutely. And I think there's also going to be a halo effect, meaning if these features start becoming popular, are you going to see Android makers offer their version of that? Definitely Samsung is not going to fall behind, and we actually don't talk about Google's Pixel enough, but they already have a lot of these features. They have Gemini built in and that's already available, but it's not making that big an impact just because Pixel market size isn't that big by comparison.
Marcus Johnson (09:12):
Looking some data in terms of how important people think AI features are when considering the next smartphone purchase, YouGov has some numbers. It seems about 60% of people said it was either somewhat or very important. So that's a healthy amount. Obviously even more so for younger folks.
(09:31):
Also, Gadjo this might've been one of your articles that you were writing, but it was looking at GenAI smartphone shipments, which will be quite slow it seems, at least worldwide. And so CounterPoint Technology Market Research think that GenAI-capable smartphone shipments worldwide will go from 11% this year to 43% by 2027.
Jacob Bourne (09:53):
Wow. That's a big jump.
Marcus Johnson (09:55):
Yes. But I also thought that's not as fast as, I don't know, that's basically they're saying that by the next Olympics, which is 2028, we might still not be at half of devices that are shipped having GenAI capabilities.
(10:10):
Now that's worldwide. A lot of other markets are behind, 3G markets or maybe now becoming 4G markets. So not all smartphones are as advanced technologically as the ones we see in more developed markets. But yeah, I thought that was maybe a bit slower than I expected.
Jacob Bourne (10:27):
It could reflect to just the outlook that we might continue to see some restrained device sales like we've seen over the past few years. That might continue in general.
Gadjo Sevilla (10:39):
Yeah. A big thing to consider there is AI is going to be a premium feature on all devices that feature it. So that's going to be likely the upper mid-range to high-end phones. But companies like MediaTek are now coming out with their own AI chips. I think they just announced the most recent one this week. And that, we don't think of MediaTek like we do Qualcomm, which is more popular in North America. Samsung uses them. But MediaTek is in all the Chinese made phones like OPPO, Vivo, Huawei and they're starting to provide on-device AI capabilities with you can do translation, image generation. So I think by mid next year we should start to see that creep in at least to the mid-range.
(11:29):
Will that appear in North American markets? Probably not, because they don't really have partner smartphone companies that sell to these market. They're mostly focused on emerging. But when that happens, then I guess the software will start to be able to run on these devices a lot more widely and I think we can expect an uptick in usage from that.
Marcus Johnson (11:54):
Yeah. So Apple, we've just been talking about one of the companies who are pushing the AI envelope. Let's talk about some of the other players driving this space by looking to each of you for your AI company pie charts and then we'll discuss how they differ if they differ and why.
(12:12):
Jacob, do you want to go first? Do you want to give us a list of which companies you included in your pie chart, the shares of influence that you think they'll have and a quick take on why? And then we'll get into more of detail after Gadjo goes.
Jacob Bourne (12:24):
All right, yeah, I've got a few on here. So first OpenAI, I have at 22%. As you said, Marcus, it kind of started this whole GenAI craze and I think it still continues to be the market leader.
(12:36):
Google, I put at 19%. Back in 2017 it invented the transformer, which kind of paved the way for the development of generative AI. It has still an innovative spark, I think that needs to be considered.
(12:52):
Nvidia, I also have at 19%. Its GPUs really formed the foundation for this generative AI sector to even be a thing at all.
(13:03):
Then a bit lower down the list, we have Microsoft at 12%. It's so closely partnered with OpenAI that it just has to be on the list.
(13:13):
Meta I also have at 12%. It's been aggressively stockpiling AI chips making some bold moves as well.
(13:21):
Then I have Anthropic at 11% share. It's not as well funded as OpenAI, but its cloud model is pretty high performing and it also has the ethical AI focus, which I think is important.
(13:36):
And then finally, this is kind of just a miscellaneous rising startups group at 5% and there's a couple players. There's several players I think to watch in there.
Marcus Johnson (13:46):
Okay. All right, very nice. So OpenAI 22, Google 19, Nvidia 19, Microsoft 12, Meta 12, Anthropic 11, and then 5% for those other players as startups. So that's Jacob's pie. Gadjo, what does yours look like?
Gadjo Sevilla (14:00):
Yeah, so for me, OpenAI definitely is there at 45%. But I'm looking at OpenAI not just as OpenAI currently is, but its whole umbrella organization. So I think Microsoft is partly in there because it's pretty much a proxy of OpenAI and all the AI companies from the founders of OpenAI that have left and are probably going to create their own flavor of what OpenAI already has. So I think that's going to be a vital cog in the ecosystem. That's why I'm giving them 45%. They've always been first to introduce things, although not always first to complete them. We still haven't seen Sora for example, but that's the first one.
(14:47):
The second would be Meta actually, and I put them at 20%.
Marcus Johnson (14:50):
Okay.
Gadjo Sevilla (14:52):
Like Jacob said, they've been very aggressive in stockpiling hardware, but they're also really pushing this open source AI ideal. And that's giving them a lot of influence among startups in the emerging market. Plus, they also have a slew of products that they can already input the AI into. We're not even going to talk about Facebook and Instagram. They actually have their wearables, their Quest VR, mixed reality headset. All of that can benefit-
Marcus Johnson (14:52):
Yeah, WhatsApp.
Gadjo Sevilla (15:27):
They can all benefit from the AI infusion. And we could really see that they're willing to spend to get to where they are.
(15:35):
Google would come in third at 15%. I think it's still going to be an important player definitely. Although they're a close system, they're more restrictive, they're super careful, especially after the initial missteps that they have had with their early AI experiments. But I wouldn't discount them. I think in terms of partnerships and just making it more affordable for Google users, I think they're sure a sure bet.
(16:02):
I'm high on Anthropic. I put them at 10%. I think they have what it takes to grow. And the fact that they're taking things slowly, especially now that OpenAI is for profit. Anthropic kind of stands out as kind of the more, I would say, the more study, the more regulated player in terms of startups.
(16:25):
A surprising one here I have xAI at 5%. The reason for that is ...
Marcus Johnson (16:30):
Dark horse.
Gadjo Sevilla (16:31):
Well, we have invested in a lot of hardware. We know the person running it is going to continue to spend that money, whether it's a revenge plan against OpenAI or for his own-
Marcus Johnson (16:32):
Former founder, yep-
Gadjo Sevilla (16:45):
... for his own benefits, I think that's still going to be a factor, especially since a lot of the technologies for Tesla, for SpaceX, robo taxis, they're going to require some AI infrastructure. So investing in that I think will make them a serious player, but maybe for their own market, maybe not to develop AI for wider usage.
(17:12):
And finally, last but not the least is Nvidia 5%. And I'm saying this not just because of the hardware, but because they are developing their own models now. And so that's kind of their way to circle back and become a more dominant player because they're packaging it so customers will get the Nvidia model along with the hardware. Some people might see that as an anti-competitive move, but it's definitely I think a notable move because clearly their models are trained specifically to use the latest GPUs in all future products that they have. So I think they're probably the bigger dark horse than xAI at this point, and it's just a matter of time before they expand that part of it.
Marcus Johnson (18:04):
All right. So to go through Gadjo's this one more time, we've got OpenAI at 45%, including Microsoft and a few other folks. Meta at 20, Google at 15, Anthropic at 10, xAI at 5, and Nvidia with 5 as well.
(18:18):
All right, so the first thing that jumps out is, I mean Jacob, you had OpenAI. If you add Microsoft to that, you get 34%. So OpenAI is 22, Microsoft 12, you get 34, that's closer to Gadjo's 45. And Gadjo, I think you were saying there might be some other folks as well in there that OpenAI is-
Gadjo Sevilla (18:35):
Yeah, most of the founders have left. And I'm betting that a lot of them will start their own AI companies. And so that's sort of the tree that you need to look at.
Marcus Johnson (18:46):
Yeah. But interesting you guys both put them first.
Jacob Bourne (18:49):
Yeah, I mean, and I think Gadjo's points are certainly valid. I do see OpenAI and Microsoft, their relationship diverging a bit more. I think there are signs of cracks there and they're both heavily dependent on each other while also trying to reduce that mutual dependence they have going on.
(19:07):
I mean I think OpenAI is going to continue to be a huge market player, but I put it a little bit lower because I think there's some management issues going on, there's some morale issues, there's some ongoing drama that still has not been resolved. I think all those things are problems for OpenAI.
(19:24):
At the same time we see that others are launching powerful models like Anthropic is a great example of that. So I see over time its industry relevance to maybe diminish a bit.
Marcus Johnson (19:38):
Yeah. So you both had Google, very close actually in terms of share. Jacob had it second with 19%. Gadjo had it third with 15%. So share-wise, very, very similar, but obviously Gadjo went Meta second with 20. Jacob, Meta for you had 12. Tell me and Gadjo why Meta shouldn't be as high on the list or have as much share as Gadjo thinks.
Jacob Bourne (20:02):
Yeah, Meta's a tough one because it's hard to say what it's going to do next. I mean, I do agree with pretty much everything that Gadjo said. One thing is that it's definitely investing a lot in GenAI and it's weaving it deeply into all of its platforms. It's taking risks, but it's also, and of course it has the open source models is deploying, but I think that in terms of having a flagship product that it's deployed as a standalone platform commercially that it's making money off of, it hasn't taken that move yet.
(20:34):
And so while investors are pretty happy with Meta's generative AI strategy, and I think it's a good one in terms of increasing its influence and getting consumers to use the track technology, it might be missing out on an early mover advantage in the GenAI market in terms of getting market share for a standalone product. And that could maybe come back to haunt it in the future.
Marcus Johnson (21:00):
Yeah. So Anthropic both basically said the same in terms of share, which is interesting. Gadjo 10, Jacob 11. One jumps out here though is Nvidia. Jacob, you had at about 19%, Gadjo had 5. Gadjo, why do you think it's going to have just 5% share compared to Jacob saying this could be the third-biggest player tied for second? You can argue with Google in terms of influence.
Gadjo Sevilla (21:25):
I'm looking at this just in terms of not the hardware, but because we could put other hardware companies here. Clearly Nvidia will blow them all out of the water at this point. I just think their whole approach of actually playing in the software market, creating their own models and different flavors of those models. And I know it's still early. Depending where that goes, I think that will give them a lot of momentum.
(21:55):
And they cater to the highest bidders in the market. So if you have the Googles, the Amazons, all kind of going with Nvidia and then taking those models and riffing off of that and building on top of that, I think it gives them a lot of leverage really, 'cause then they can control the whole widget, which who doesn't want that, right?
Jacob Bourne (22:17):
Yeah. I mean I think Nvidia is a force to be reckoned with. Not only, like I said, did it supply this foundational aspect for the generative AI sector, but it's so savvy on strategy, it's very aggressive on strategy as well. And I think I wouldn't be surprised. I mean Gadjo made a good point. It's not just the hardware, it's also the software. And they are developing their models. And I would not be surprised if we see a general AI model breakthrough come from Nvidia directly. That wouldn't surprise me at all.
(22:49):
I think it's going to be investing even more on software. And the reason why is because it seems that yeah, eventually its hardware dominance is going to be eroded by other players-
Marcus Johnson (22:49):
100%, yeah.
Jacob Bourne (22:59):
Yeah. And big tech developing their own chips is certainly going to chip away its dominance. So it's going to invest more heavily in software. And I think why it's going to succeed there, why it has a good shot of succeeding is because of this developing the software that fits with your ... So parallel hardware software development I think is a strength of Nvidia's.
(23:22):
And it also, another area that's really strong on is just industry partnerships. I mean, if you look at some of the partnerships it's embarking on, it's making very smart moves and I think I anticipate that it's always going to be a step ahead of the competition.
Gadjo Sevilla (23:39):
I agree with that, and I also think that's the reason why regulators are getting antsy about Nvidia at this point. But that comes with the territory of being the dominant player for years.
Marcus Johnson (23:51):
Yeah. Fantastic gents. Well, thank you so much for putting these together. It seems like OpenAI is going to be a force to be reckoned with, as well as Microsoft alongside them for now and maybe moving further apart as we get into the future. And then you've got some very familiar players at the top, Google, Meta, different shares in terms of influence, but still very significant players. And then you're going to have Nvidia as well and Anthropic. So yeah, very similar companies, but relatively different shares for some of them.
(24:18):
That's what we've got time for our lead. Let's move quickly to the fourth quarter. Today in other news, just the one story, Bank of America's outage underscores the risks of digital banking.
(24:34):
So story one, as I mentioned, Bank of America's outage underscoring the risks of digital banking. Gadjo, this was the title of a piece that you just wrote explaining how a massive outage at Bank of America left thousands of customers unable to see their account balances whilst others saw $0 balances in their web and mobile banking apps. And you point out, whilst the bank said that the issue was resolved, it didn't explain what caused the outage or what steps it plans to take to prevent future incidents.
(25:05):
So my question is what's your take on this story of Bank of America's outage and what that's going to mean for the future of digital banking?
Gadjo Sevilla (25:14):
So first of all, it's a wake-up call. This is the second-largest bank. They've been heavily pushing people away from brick and mortar retail into their apps, into their voice assistant. But as we see here, it's like operating without a safety net because once those things don't work, nothing works.
(25:36):
And I think the fact that we don't know what happened for as long as that continues, that's going to be a huge issue. We're hearing about all these state-sponsored cyber attacks. So we don't know. What is it? Is it an outage? Is it a software update? Did someone put in too many zeros when they were typing in something? We can't tell, right?
Marcus Johnson (26:00):
Yeah.
Gadjo Sevilla (26:01):
So I think the bank really has to explain very clearly as a matter of brand trust, what it could do to avoid this. But again, it also shows that really what is an app? It's something that runs on a smartphone, requires a network and goes to a server. I mean, those are all the failure points that aren't obvious to us. But then when it stops working, it's really difficult for consumers to figure out is this a permanent issue or how can I ... Where's my passbook? How can I prove I have that much money? That's just a huge thing.
Marcus Johnson (26:39):
So Jacob, I'm wondering whether outages are just the new normal. 'Cause Gadjo had mentioned in the piece that Bank of America's outage was the latest in a week that saw Verizon, Sony, PlayStation and Spotify all experience hours of unscheduled downtime. So is this just the world we're going to live in now? And it's more a question of how to deal with it when it happens and less how to avoid it 'cause it always will?
Jacob Bourne (26:59):
It certainly seems like it's the new normal. The difference here is that we're talking about people's money versus their digital entertainment. So it's a debacle essentially for people to go into their accounts and not know what happened. Did their account get drained? I mean it's terrible. And of course, not having an explanation almost makes it worse 'cause then you assume the worst. Right?
(27:23):
And I think hopefully this is not going to continue to be the new normal. But I mean I think there's deeper effects beyond this incident itself because I think it's, like Gadjo mentioned, the cybersecurity incidents that we keep seeing. So its outages and cybersecurity breaches seem to be hitting us continuously in tandem and it erodes the trust, I think the overall trust in our digital systems, and of course our lives continue to be increasingly digital.
(27:54):
So ultimately there are social and economic impacts to these incidents that span far beyond the people who are affected by the incident itself. It really erodes trust in systems. And I think that's a big issue. And I think as we get more and more digital, I think there just needs to be a lot more focus on bolstering the integrity of our digital infrastructure, not just advancing the technology, not just in deploying new systems, but really focusing on the security aspect. It's something it just almost has to happen.
Marcus Johnson (28:28):
'Cause yeah, as Gadjo was writing in the piece, when people think, people would think, "Okay, we'll just go down to the branch like we used to," and they were turning people away from the branch. So having a physical presence definitely matters, but not if when they go, people go to that physical presence, you say, "Yeah, same issues as online. There's nothing we can help you with."
(28:46):
You kind of touched on it there, Jacob, but one of the things is digital banking certainly is the new normal. And I was looking at some of our numbers. Almost everyone uses digital banking. 93% of Americans use the internet bank digitally. And that's across every generation. Almost every generation had about 90% of people who said they were digital banks, even boomers, I think it was like 88, 87% of them saying that they bank digitally. So that's everyone according to our forecasting team.
(29:12):
And then you had this chart, I think in that piece, Gadjo, suggesting we are heavily reliant on finance related apps. 80% of US adults have both a payment app and a banking app on their phone, and close to 50% have a credit card app according to a September MX study.
(29:29):
That's what we've got time for gents for today's episode. Thank you so much as always for being with me and hanging out today. Thank you to Gadjo.
Gadjo Sevilla (29:35):
Thanks again.
Marcus Johnson (29:36):
Yes sir. Thank you to Jacob.
Jacob Bourne (29:37):
It was a great time. Thanks so much.
Marcus Johnson (29:39):
Yes indeed. Thank you to Victoria. She edits the show. Stewart runs the team. And Sophie does our social media. So thank you, thank you, thank you to them.
(29:46):
And thanks to everyone for listening in to the Behind the Numbers Daily, an eMarketer podcast made possible by TikTok. You can hang out with Sara Lebow tomorrow if you would like on the Reimagining Retail show where she'll be speaking with Zak Stambor and Rachel Wolfe all about Prime Day in the fall and consumer behavior across membership events.