Looking back: Last year, we made five predictions for 2021. And while we were onto something with a few, we ended up missing the mark on others.
Our mPOS prediction: We predicted that in 2021, a major mobile point-of-sale (mPOS) player like Square or Clover would launch and scale a full software-based point-of-sale (softPOS) product in the US.
The logic behind it: We expected softPOS innovation in foreign markets like India would foreshadow similar products in the US, especially since last year, 1 in 5 small businesses did not accept digital payments, per a Visual Objects survey.
What happened instead: Although no major mPOS firms introduced a softPOS offering, smaller players like MagicCube and PayMob stepped in to meet small-business demand amid the backdrop of declining cash use. Visa also took advantage of the rise in contactless payments by expanding its Tap to Phone offering in 2021.
Our ecommerce prediction: We thought that Walmart and Target would accelerate how quickly they stole US online shopping market share from Amazon thanks to their same-day ecommerce fulfillment strength.
Our reasoning: Last year, both retailers went on a major ecommerce growth tear and took a bite out of Amazon’s share of online sales. Their brick-and-mortar presences let them offer fast, competitive fulfillment.
What really happened: Amazon’s customer loyalty proved to be stronger than we thought—allowing the etailer to gain market share while Walmart and Target both lost some. And Amazon recently enabled alternative payment solutions like Venmo and Affirm, so its share is likely to keep growing into 2022.