Paid Social Forecast Report H2 2024

The Rise of the Machines

Report by Max Willens  | Dec 20, 2024
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Executive Summary
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
2024 was a strong year, and encouraging growth is on the horizon
Facebook is set to enter a new phase
Instagram, powered by Reels, ascends the throne
TikTok’s ad spending growth rides impulse purchases and automation
Social’s second tier builds gains from the bottom of the funnel
EMARKETER Interviews
Sources
Media Gallery
About This Report
Automated ad systems, boosted video ad spending, and platforms leaning into their unique qualities led to a bounce-back year in 2024 for social networks overall.
Topics
Social Media Ad Spending
United States
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
2024 was a strong year, and encouraging growth is on the horizon
Facebook is set to enter a new phase
Instagram, powered by Reels, ascends the throne
TikTok’s ad spending growth rides impulse purchases and automation
Social’s second tier builds gains from the bottom of the funnel
EMARKETER Interviews
Sources
Media Gallery

One year after social networks struggled through one of the most difficult stretches in their industry’s history, things have roared back to life. Social platforms have been bolstered by ecommerce-driven ad spending, automated ad offerings such as Meta’s Advantage+ suite, and an ever-increasing emphasis on video.

Key Question: What is responsible for the strong growth projected for social ad spending?

Social Network Ad Spending Will Represent Over One-Quarter of All US Ad Spending in 2027 (billions in US social network ad spending, % change, and % of total media ad spending, 2024-2028)
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Key Stat: We revised our 2024 US social network ad spending forecast up 9.0% from where it was in H2 2023, after numerous companies handily beat their earnings estimates over the course of 2024.

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    Table of Contents

    1. Executive Summary
    2. 2024 was a strong year, and encouraging growth is on the horizon
    3. Facebook is set to enter a new phase
    1. Instagram, powered by Reels, ascends the throne
    2. TikTok’s ad spending growth rides impulse purchases and automation
    3. Social’s second tier builds gains from the bottom of the funnel
    1. EMARKETER Interviews
    2. Sources
    3. Media Gallery

    Charts in This Report

    Social Network Ad Spending Will Represent Over One-Quarter of All US Ad Spending in 2027 (billions in US social network ad spending, % change, and % of total media ad spending, 2024-2028)The Share of Retail Advertisers' Meta Spend Going to ASC+ Has Jumped to Over One-Third (Meta Advantage+ Shopping Campaign (ASC+) % of US retail advertiser spending on Meta, Q2 2023-Q3 2024)
    Instagram Will Earn Over 26% of Its Revenues From Reels and Other Niche Ad Formats in 2025 (billions in Instagram other ad revenues worldwide, % change, and % of Instagram ad revenues, 2022-2026)TikTok Will Claim More Than $1 of Every $7 Spent on Social Networks in 2025 (billions in US TikTok ad revenues, % change, and % of total social network ad spending, 2022-2026)
    Pinterest's US Ad Business Will Be 33% Bigger Than That of Its Nearest Competitor, Snapchat, in 2025 (billions in US social network ad revenues, by platform, 2023-2026)Snapchat's 2-Year Growth Will Lag That of Most Social Platforms, and US Digital Ad Spending Overall (% change in US social network ad revenues, by platform, vs. digital ad spending, 2024-2026)
    Reddit Will Have a $1 Billion Ad Business in the US by 2025, a Year Earlier Than Previously Expected (billions in US Reddit ad revenues, 2023-2026)

    Interviewed for This Report

    Michael Cohen
    Horizon Media
    Executive Vice President, Performance Media
    Interviewed November 27, 2024
    Aaron Goldman
    Mediaocean
    CMO
    Interviewed November 25, 2024
    Jack Johnston
    Tinuiti
    Senior Innovation and Growth Director
    Interviewed November 25, 2024
    Dane Kragness
    Taktical Digital
    Director, Paid Media
    Interviewed November 22, 2024
    Sadie Miller
    Kinesso
    Senior Vice President, Social Media Partnerships and Strategy
    Interviewed November 26, 2024

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    authors

    Max Willens

    Contributors

    Rahul Chadha
    Director, Report Editing
    Vladimir de Leon
    Chart Editor
    Zach Goldner
    Senior Forecasting Analyst
    Oscar Orozco
    Senior Director, Forecasting
    Minda Smiley
    Senior Analyst, Social Media
    Sakina Thanawala
    Copy Editor
    Matt Torpey
    Senior Chart Editor
    Yoram Wurmser
    Principal Analyst