Paid Social Forecast Report H1 2025

Spending Remains Resilient Despite Uncertainty and Changes Across Landscape

Report by Minda Smiley  | May 2, 2025
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
US social network ad spend will increase YoY despite challenges
Social ad spend will continue to grow, demonstrating resilience despite headwinds
Meta’s shaky start to 2025 hasn’t materially impacted ad spend—for now
TikTok ad spend will pull back only slightly, even as its future remains unclear
Snapchat will make small gains, but remain somewhat stagnant
Smaller platforms will see spending boosts—but their overall share of social ad spend will shrink
EMARKETER Interviews
Sources
Media Gallery
About This Report
Despite uncertainty related to the economy and tariffs, US social network ad spending is expected to grow. AI offerings, social commerce, and lower-funnel investments will drive outlays.
Topics
Social Media Marketing
Total Media Ad Spending
Media Buying
United States
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
US social network ad spend will increase YoY despite challenges
Social ad spend will continue to grow, demonstrating resilience despite headwinds
Meta’s shaky start to 2025 hasn’t materially impacted ad spend—for now
TikTok ad spend will pull back only slightly, even as its future remains unclear
Snapchat will make small gains, but remain somewhat stagnant
Smaller platforms will see spending boosts—but their overall share of social ad spend will shrink
EMARKETER Interviews
Sources
Media Gallery

US ad spend on social networks is expected to increase in 2025 despite tariffs and other challenges facing the sector. Investments in AI, social commerce, the continued rise of influencer marketing, and several other factors will fuel growth.

Key Question: How will ad spending across social networks change in 2025?

Tariffs Will Reduce US Social Ad Growth, as Major Spenders Like Chinese Retailers Cut Back (billions in US social network ad spending, by tariff forecast scenario, 2021-2025)
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Key Stat: Tariffs could reduce our forecast for US social network ad spending by up to 10% this year, but the market would still increase under that scenario.

This report can help you:

  • Determine market sizing (brands, agencies, media platforms, and solution providers)
  • Develop media strategy and allocate budget for campaigns (agencies and brands)
  • Showcase opportunities to customers (media platforms)

Here’s what’s in the full report

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7expert perspectives

Insights from industry and company leaders.

    Table of Contents

    1. Executive Summary
    2. US social network ad spend will increase YoY despite challenges
    3. Social ad spend will continue to grow, demonstrating resilience despite headwinds
    4. Meta’s shaky start to 2025 hasn’t materially impacted ad spend—for now
    1. TikTok ad spend will pull back only slightly, even as its future remains unclear
    2. Snapchat will make small gains, but remain somewhat stagnant
    3. Smaller platforms will see spending boosts—but their overall share of social ad spend will shrink
    4. EMARKETER Interviews
    1. Sources
    2. Media Gallery

    Charts in This Report

    Tariffs Will Reduce US Social Ad Growth, as Major Spenders Like Chinese Retailers Cut Back (billions in US social network ad spending, by tariff forecast scenario, 2021-2025)Social Network Ad Spending Sees Double-Digit Growth Even as Users and Time Spent Falter (% change in US social network ad spending, social network users, and time spent with social networks by social network users, 2022-2026)
    Both Ad Spend and Time Spent on Social Video Are Seeing Growth Slow Down, (billions and % change in US social network video ad spending, and % change in time spent with social video by adult social network users*, 2022-2026)Instagram's US Ad Revenues Will Surpass Facebook's for the First Time This Year (billions in US Instagram vs. Facebook social network ad revenues, 2023-2027)
    Facebook Will See Slowest US Ad Spend Growth This Year (% change in US social network ad revenues YoY, 2025)Snapchat Sees Growth in Revenues and Modest Userbase Gains Despite Time Spent Declines, 2022-2026 (billions and % change in US social network video ad spending, and % change in time spent with social network video, 2022-2026)
    Despite Modest Gains by Reddit and Others, Meta and TikTok Still Lead in Social Ad Spend (Meta and TikTok vs. other social networks % of total US social network ad spending, 2023-2027)Reddit Captures Only About 1% of US Social Ad Revenues (% of total US social network ad spending, by company, 2025)

    Interviewed for This Report

    Kate Black
    Horizon Next
    Senior Vice President, Social Strategy
    Interviewed April 10, 2025
    Courtney Hirose
    Horizon Media
    Senior Vice President, Performance Media
    Interviewed April 10, 2025
    Shuree Jones
    Rain the Growth Agency
    Group Director, Paid Social and Influencer Media
    Interviewed April 11, 2025
    Stephanie Lassar
    Mekanism
    Media Director
    Interviewed April 11, 2025
    Joe Schlesinger
    Gupta Media
    Group Account Director
    Interviewed April 11, 2025
    Rob Silver
    Razorfish
    Executive Vice President, Head of Media
    Interviewed April 11, 2025
    Alex Stone
    Horizon Media
    Senior Vice President, Agency Partnerships and Advanced Video
    Interviewed April 10, 2025

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    authors

    Minda Smiley

    Contributors

    Rahul Chadha
    Director, Report Editing
    Vladimir de Leon
    Chart Editor
    Jasmine Enberg
    Vice President and Principal Analyst
    Donte Gibson
    Senior Charts Editor
    Zach Goldner
    Senior Forecasting Analyst
    Madan Kumar
    Copy Editor
    Emman Velasco
    Chart Editor
    Yoram Wurmser
    Principal Analyst