Nontraditional healthcare players will account for 30% of the primary care market by 2030

The news: Nontraditional healthcare providers will account for nearly one-third of the US primary care market by 2030, according to a new report from Bain & Company.

The primary care market landscape in 2030: Bain now estimates that retailers will make up a lesser share of the primary care market in 2030, while payers will account for more.

Two years ago, Bain predicted that retail companies would control 7% of the primary care market by 2030, but it slashed that projection down to just 2%.

The recent decision by Walmart to shut down its health clinic business and Walgreens to scale back its primary care investments reflect retailers’ challenges of operating two very different business models. Plus, a recent Bain survey revealed that less than one-third of consumers are likely to visit a retail store or pharmacy for primary care needs beyond vaccinations and common cold symptoms.

Bain's survey affirms our updated retail health forecasts, which estimate that fewer US adults will visit a retail clinic each year through 2026.

Health plan-owned primary care companies will capture a greater share of the market than all other nontraditional players. These entities are projected to make up around 20% of the overall primary care market in 2030, up from the 15% Bain predicted in 2022.

Health insurers that own primary care practices aim to gain more control of both care delivery and payment in a given market. Bain called out UnitedHealth Group and Humana for being experienced in managing patients’ care as well as building out capabilities that help physician practices succeed in value-based payment arrangements. UnitedHealth Group continues to acquire or hire more clinician groups and is contracted and affiliated with around 10% of all US physicians.

Our take: Nontraditional primary care players are realizing that providing convenience and technology isn’t enough to recruit physicians to work for them and patients to get care with them. Success in the primary care market requires much more healthcare expertise—both clinical and operational—than what retailers and some startups were prepared for.

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