Nearly two-thirds of US smartphone users (65.0%) will embrace the technology this year, per our forecast. That near-saturation means just a 4.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between this year and 2027.
Gen Zers are adopting mobile peer-to-peer payments (P2P) at a rapid clip as they come of age. We expect 80.4% of new users between 2023 and 2027 to come from this generation. Providers are leaning in: Cash App offers teen accounts with a limited set of privileges, and Venmo will debut similar accounts this summer. Reaching Gen Z and Gen Alpha through their parents—and then onboarding younger users’ social groups—can fuel gains.
But lack of trust in mobile P2P apps is stifling user growth. While two-thirds of P2P app users are confident in their safety, 79% of non-users are a little or not at all confident, per a July 2022 Pew Research Center survey. These factors could have an outsize impact: Non-users’ concerns may keep their peers from adopting. And intensifying media attention is compounding this perception issue—and driving regulatory scrutiny.
Adding features beyond payments can drive gains for P2P providers. This might include banking services that reach underbanked populations, buy now, pay later (BNPL) support for Gen Zers, or value-added security features that win over nervous holdouts.