Mcommerce to double its share of retail sales by 2025

Join us to hear more from Yory Wurmser, principal analyst at Insider Intelligence, as he digs into our latest mcommerce forecast—and explains some of the factors driving this growth, and what it means for retailers in our upcoming live Meet the Analyst Webinar, “Mcommerce: How Rapid Growth Will Continue to Transform Retail.”

Mcommerce has had torrid growth over the past two years, and all signs point to continued strong growth for the next four years. In fact, by 2025, eMarketer expects that mcommerce will account for over 10.4% of all retail sales in the US—more than two and a half times the pre-pandemic share.

What’s causing this rapid increase?

Some factors are obvious; for instance, many consumers stayed away from stores during the heart of the pandemic. The consumer experience on mobile sites has also gotten much better, and click and collect is now ubiquitous. These factors combined to make mcommerce shopping for everyday purchases more common during the pandemic.

Over the next few years, more subtle factors will drive growth. We expect friction in mobile buying to continue to go down as a result of more seamless mobile payments and better product visualization through video, augmented reality and visual search. Sixty-two percent of respondents to a February 2021 survey by Bizrate and Insider Intelligence said they had used visual search or are at least somewhat interested in it.

At the same time, virtually all social media companies have introduced new forms of commerce, including giving influencers more tools to sell directly via their platforms and introducing augmented reality tools for shopping. Facebook is also experimenting with livestream shopping, which already drive huge volumes of sales in China.

There are few notes of caution, though. Although China often adopts mobile trends ahead of the US, the retail industries in the two countries are different enough that there’s no guarantee that something like shopping videos in the US will take off in the same way they have in China. The big shoppable video platforms in China, such as Taobao Live and JD Live, are parts of giant ecommerce companies situated within super-apps.

Other digital devices may also capture a big portion of new shopping channels. By 2023, we expected “other connected devices,” primarily connected TV (CTV), will account for 1:49 in time spent per day for the average US adult. Even so, mobile will remain a major driver of ecommerce growth.

What does the rapid growth of mcommerce mean for retail?

Retailers need to double down on their efforts to find and serve a mobile audience. In part, that means continued reliance on big mobile platforms, including social media companies, Google and rapid delivery platforms.

But it also means learning from them. Facebook, Snapchat and Instacart are some of the most innovative companies in augmented reality and influencer marketing on mobile. As mobile first companies, they provide great examples of cutting edge mobile customer experience (CX).

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