Instacart sees mixed growth as smaller baskets, advertising headwinds weigh on profitability

The insight: Instacart expects order growth to outpace gross transaction value (GTV) in Q1 as efforts to woo shoppers with restaurant delivery (via Uber) and lower minimums for no-fee delivery result in smaller baskets.

• Instacart forecasts GTV to rise 8% to 10% YoY in Q1 to between $9 billion and $9.15 billion, beating FactSet’s consensus estimate for $8.99 billion.
• But that will pressure profitability: Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $220 million and $230 million, short of analysts’ expectations for $237.3 million.

Behind the numbers: Instacart’s mixed Q1 forecast comes on the heels of a strong Q4, with orders and GTV up by 10% and 11% YoY, respectively. But average order value is declining, thanks in part to the increased restaurant delivery volume as well as the strategic decision to invest in “affordability initiatives” to boost appeal to price-sensitive shoppers.