“In recent years, the trend of heavy cross-border shopping is reversing,” Briggs said. “The widening of the currency gap since 2013—about a CA$0.25 drop in the relative value of the Canadian dollar—has made shopping south of the border costly. In addition, there’s a greater number of quality domestic options.”
The trade environment—especially the renegotiated United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which is still to be ratified—is likely to impact cross-border ecommerce levels. A new provision in the USMCA is an increased “de minimis threshold” (DMT)—the value at which goods are free from duties and taxes when crossing borders. Before the renegotiation, it was just CA$20 for goods entering Canada, but a strong lobby from US online retailers and shipping companies raised the de minimis to CA$150 for exemption to duties and CA$40 for exemption of sales taxes. (The agreement decoupled the duty- and tax-free thresholds.)
This put online retail in Canada at a disadvantage, according to the Retail Council of Canada (RCC). An RCC-commissioned study from January 2018 with PwC estimated the de minimis hike could cost up to 300,000 jobs in Canada’s retail sector.
Post-deal, the RCC was satisfied with the result. In a statement, it said, “Retailers in Canada dodged a bullet. The Canadian negotiating team did not cave to US demands for an $800 USD DMT and gave a fraction of what the US asked.”