Impact of Tariffs on US Businesses

What Do Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ Tariffs Mean for Media Players, Brands, and Retailers?

Report by Zak Stambor, Vladimir Hanzlik, and Zia Daniell Wigder  | UPDATED: Apr 17, 2025
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Introduction
Impact of Tariffs on the Economy
How We’re Revising Our Commerce and Ad Spend Forecasts
Impact of Tariffs on Commerce
Impact of Tariffs on Advertising
Implications by Audience
Appendix: Retail Sales by Category for Each Scenario
Media Gallery
About This Report
Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs landed harder than expected. Uncertainty remains, given the pause on reciprocal tariffs for countries willing to negotiate with the US—along with an escalating trade war with China. Which markets will take the greatest hits? And how might our US forecasts change?
Topics
Politics
Digital Shoppers & Buyers
Digital Ad Spending
United States
Worldwide
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Introduction
Impact of Tariffs on the Economy
How We’re Revising Our Commerce and Ad Spend Forecasts
Impact of Tariffs on Commerce
Impact of Tariffs on Advertising
Implications by Audience
Appendix: Retail Sales by Category for Each Scenario
Media Gallery

Trump’s new tariffs are rattling US retail and advertising; major uncertainty remains around the breadth, depth, and impact of the tariffs, especially as the goalposts shift. In this report, we model three potential outcomes, based on the severity of tariffs, to show how retail sales and ad spending could shift. We also break down the fallout by retail category and ad channel, as retailers face rising costs, consumers pull back, and advertisers rethink spend and strategies.

Key Question: How will Trump’s tariffs impact US commerce spend and ad spending?

Tariffs Will Reduce US Social Ad Growth, as Major Spenders Like Chinese Retailers Cut Back (billions in US social network ad spending, by tariff forecast scenario, 2021-2025)
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Key Stat: Tariffs may reduce US social media ad spending in 2025 by up to $10 billion, or 10% versus our existing forecast. This would reduce its YoY growth to 1.5% versus our existing forecast of 12.8%.

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Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. Introduction
  3. Impact of Tariffs on the Economy
  1. How We’re Revising Our Commerce and Ad Spend Forecasts
  2. Impact of Tariffs on Commerce
  3. Impact of Tariffs on Advertising
  1. Implications by Audience
  2. Appendix: Retail Sales by Category for Each Scenario
  3. Media Gallery

Charts in This Report

Tariffs Will Reduce US Social Ad Growth, as Major Spenders Like Chinese Retailers Cut Back (billions in US social network ad spending, by tariff forecast scenario, 2021-2025)Reduced Consumer Confidence and Greater Business Uncertainty Will Have the Biggest Impact on US Digital Ad Spending and Retail Sales (potential tariff implications and level of impact on US digital ad spending and US retail ecommerce sales, 2025)
In the Face of Heavy Tariffs, US Retail Sales in 2025 Will Drop Below Last Year's Levels (billions in US retail sales, by tariff forecast scenario, 2021-2025)US Ecommerce Sales Will Be Hit Hard by Tariffs but Grow Even in the Worst-Case Scenario (billions in US retail ecommerce sales, by tariff forecast scenario, 2021-2025)
Auto and Discretionary Product Categories Will Face the Biggest Impact on Sales (impact of tariffs on US retail sales, by product category and impact level, 2025)Tariffs Could Wipe Out All of the US Ad Market’s Projected Gains This Year (billions in US total media ad spending, by tariff forecast scenario, 2021-2025)
US Digital Ad Spend Will Remain Strong Despite Tariff-Related Cuts to Marketing Budgets (billions in US digital ad spending, by tariff forecast scenario, 2021-2025)US Search Ad Spending Could Drop 7.1% as Tariff-Affected Advertisers Pull Back (billions in US search ad spending, by tariff forecast scenario, 2021-2025)
US Retail Media Ad Spend Will Grow Even With Heavy Tariffs (billions in US retail media ad spending, by tariff forecast scenario, 2021-2025)The Fast-Growing CTV Ad Market Could Become Stagnant Due to Heavy Tariffs (billions in US connected TV (CTV) ad spending, by tariff forecast scenario, 2021-2025)
Industries Unable to Diversify Supply Chains or Pass Costs on to Customers Will Cut US Ad Spending the Most (impact of tariffs on US digital ad spending, by industry and impact level, 2025)Limited Tariff Forecast Scenario: US Retail Sales, by Product Category, 2021-2025 (billions)
Moderate Tariff Forecast Scenario: US Retail Sales, by Product Category, 2021-2025 (billions)Heavy Tariff Forecast Scenario: US Retail Sales, by Product Category, 2021-2025 (billions)

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First Published on Apr 9, 2025

authors

Zak Stambor, Vladimir Hanzlik, and Zia Daniell Wigder

Contributors

Matthias Braun
Oscar Bruce Jr.
Director, Forecasting
Ethan Cramer-Flood
Suzy Davidkhanian
VP, Content
Eleni Digalaki
Vivian Dong
Forecasting Analyst
Jasmine Enberg
Vice President and Principal Analyst
Zach Goldner
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Erika Huber
Director, Report Editing
Michelle Lakov
Brian Lau
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Penelope Lin
Director, Data Visualization
Cindy Liu
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Sarah Marzano
Principal Analyst, Retail Media
Emma Noyes
Graphic Designer, Data Visualization
Oscar Orozco
Senior Director, Forecasting
Jennifer Pearson
VP, Research
Shelleen Shum
VP, Forecasting
Andrew Spink
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Stephanie Taglianetti
Paul Verna
VP, Content
Julia Woolever