The news: The US Supreme Court decision to strike down the Biden administration’s program—which would have extinguished up to $20,000 in federal student loan debt for about 43 million people—is likely to leave millions of borrowers owing substantially more than they otherwise would have.
The move could help increase loan delinquencies, and also slow down consumer spending and lending enough so that some analysts believe it could be the “tipping point” that starts a recession, per American Banker.
Spending habits will change: Consumers drew down their savings during the pandemic, which could exacerbate the shock to their household budgets after the moratorium ends. Some have likely been using those savings to maintain their spending habits in the face of high inflation.
What this means for lenders: They’ll likely see higher delinquency rates on consumer loans, including credit cards, as some consumers struggle to balance their reactivated student debt obligations with other bills.
And consumer lending could slow measurably among a large segment of consumers, as many borrowers will see their credit scores fall after resuming payments when the forbearance period on debt repayment ends
Executives at Discover, Synchrony Financial, Capital One Financial, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America are monitoring how student loan repayments could cause more borrowers to fall behind on other payments.
Early signs of stress: Some indicators are already pointing to the precarity of current consumer spending habits.
Lenders need to be proactive: Continue tracking how the Biden administration's on-ramp plan, prompted by the Supreme Court ruling, will affect due dates. Use the months between now and the resumption of payments to raise awareness among your customers and help them prepare. Reach out through social media or your in-app user experience to explain what the upcoming loan repayments will mean for them.
Handled thoughtfully, the resumption of student loan payments could be an opportunity to strengthen customer relationships.
This article originally appeared in Insider Intelligence’s Banking Innovation Briefing—a daily recap of top stories reshaping the banking industry. Subscribe to have more hard-hitting takeaways delivered to your inbox daily.
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