How rising prices are shaping consumers’ grocery shopping habits

Egg prices are up, and so are consumers’ concerns about affording groceries amid rising cases of avian flu, inflation, and President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Here’s how grocery shopping may change in the year ahead and what retailers need to know.

The price isn’t right: Inflation is up and shoppers are feeling the pressure of high prices at the grocery store.

• Over half (58%) of US households remain extremely concerned over inflation, according to the “2024 Consumer Digest Year in Review” report from 84.51°.
• Shoppers have noticed price increases across dairy (80%); deli, meat, or fish counters (77%); and produce (73%).
• 66% of shoppers are buying more meat using sales, coupons, or deals; 43% are cooking dishes with less meat; and 33% are buying more beans, legumes, nuts, or eggs to replace some meat.

Compounding the issue, the avian flu killed over 40 million egg-laying birds last year, causing egg prices to soar 14% month-over-month in December 2024, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

• Egg prices are expected to rise another 20% this year, according to the USDA.
• This could severely affect consumers’ grocery shopping habits, as eggs are a top source of animal-based protein US households consume, per 84.51°.

The takeaway: Consumers are aware of rising prices, causing them to rely on discounts or cheaper alternatives. Retailers should focus promotional efforts on helping consumers afford the essentials.

The trade-off: Some 43% of US consumers would switch to a more affordable alternative from a different brand if the Trump administration’s tariffs on international goods cause price increases on their favorite brand, according to CivicScience. Another 20% would buy the brand less frequently.

While nearly half (49%) of grocery shoppers say they’ve switched to a lower-cost brand more often, not all categories are equal when trading down, per 84.51°.

• For example, 60% of consumers would switch to a lower-cost brand for paper products, while only 46% would switch dairy brands.
• 57% of consumers would trade down on shelf-stable goods and 54% would trade down on household cleaning items. Shoppers are less likely to trade down in frozen food (46%), drinks (44%), and cereal (44%).

The takeaway: Loyalty isn’t guaranteed, especially amid financial stress. Value and trust are the top drivers of brand loyalty, according to 84.51° data. Retailers need to deliver consistent, tangible value to retain consumers.

Plant the seed: Rising protein prices could put the spotlight back on plant-based alternatives, especially if brands focus on providing consumers with more value and highlight health benefits.

• 59% of grocery shoppers say their overall health drives them to consume more plant-based products, according to 84.51°.
• Nearly as many (53%) say that cost is what causes them to reduce their plant-based consumption.
• Shoppers are most likely to purchase plant-based milk, frozen meals, and frozen meat, while plant-based cheese, fresh meat, and ice cream are low on their list.

The takeaway: This is an opportunity for brands to attract new consumers to try their product, but the price and messaging must be right.

This was originally featured in the Retail Daily newsletter. For more retail insights, statistics, and trends, subscribe here.