US ecommerce marketplaces will account for $384.57 billion in sales this year, a growth of 10.2% over 2022, according to our forecast. That growth will accelerate through the end of our forecast period in 2027, at which point sales will surpass $600 billion. Here’s a closer look at how the three biggest US ecommerce marketplaces stack up.
1. Amazon is the blueprint
“Amazon has really written the playbook for operating a successful marketplace in the US,” our analyst Sky Canaves said on our “Behind the Numbers: Reimagining Retail” podcast. The marketplace will see $277.91 billion in US sales this year, accounting for 65.0% of the company’s total retail ecommerce sales, according to our forecast.
What’s working: Amazon offers convenience for consumers and retailers. The company also has extensive retail media opportunities.
Room to grow: The marketplace doesn’t always have the lowest prices. “Amazon’s under some pressure on the retail front, because of increasing competition in this market and consumers being increasingly price sensitive,” said Canaves.
2. eBay is slowing down
eBay has a huge US marketplace, at $35.41 billion in sales this year, according to our forecast. But the marketplace is shrinking, down over $4 billion from two years ago.
What’s working: eBay is unique in that it’s entirely a third-party marketplace, and the company has expanded authentication services to enhance its luxury business. “It’s trying to turn around into a more high-value, product-oriented marketplace, what it calls focus categories. Luxury goods like handbags, sneakers, watches, collectibles,” said Canaves. Plus, eBay Ads ranked as the No. 1 overall retail media network in our Retail Media Networks Perception Benchmark 2022 report.
Room to grow: eBay is losing users, and its consumer-to-consumer marketplace model is limiting. “I’m not sure that [luxury will] be enough to turn the tide,” said Canaves.
3. Walmart chases competition
Walmart’s marketplace will see $8.57 billion in sales this year, up 12.6% over last year, according to our forecast. Last year, the marketplace made up 10.7% of Walmart’s overall retail ecommerce sales.
What’s working: Walmart followed Amazon’s model in building out its marketplace, and the strategy has paid off. In 2022, Walmart had the fastest-growing marketplace of those we forecast. Through website improvements and incentivizing more sellers to list on the marketplace, Walmart has staked its claim alongside Amazon and eBay.
Room to grow: Walmart’s marketplace is still much smaller than Amazon’s, making up 2.2% of total US retail marketplace sales this year compared with Amazon’s 72.4%, according to our forecast. It may be growing fast, but Walmart won’t catch up to Amazon anytime soon.
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