How Hollywood will be affected by the new tariff regime

The news: President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs are rattling the entertainment industry, threatening both consumer spending and ad budgets—the twin pillars of Hollywood’s post-pandemic growth.

• The tariff package includes a 10% baseline on most imports and a 54% levy on Chinese goods, raising fears of broad inflationary impacts.
• While not directly targeting media, the policy’s economic ripple effects—rising costs, recession concerns, and stock market volatility—could sharply curtail advertising and discretionary consumer spending.

Why it matters: Media companies are especially exposed to shifts in consumer behavior and ad spend—and both are now under pressure.

• Ad budgets face new headwinds. As costs rise, consumer brands in retail, tech, and CPG may scale back marketing—bad news for platforms like Netflix, Disney+, and Roku, which increasingly depend on advertising.
• Content spending will tighten. With billions committed to live sports rights, media companies may further deprioritize scripted programming in favor of lower-cost unscripted content, putting creative innovation at risk.
• Licensing deals could stall. Higher production costs (especially from China) in toys, apparel, and home goods could reduce third-party interest in branded IP—a problem for firms like Disney, which generates outsize margins from licensing, notes The Hollywood Reporter.
• The hardware wildcard. Tariffs may make smart TVs, streaming devices, and game consoles more expensive, affecting downstream media engagement. Nintendo has delayed Switch 2 preorders amid market uncertainty, pushing back not only hardware rollout but also the ad campaigns that would typically accompany a major launch.
• Theme parks and concerts may cool. Post-COVID spending booms on experiences could slow, hitting companies like Disney and Live Nation that rely on in-person entertainment for growth.

Our take: Tariffs may not target Hollywood directly—but their impact could destabilize its most important economic levers.

• Trump’s tariff plan risks a one-two punch, constraining consumer wallets and spooking advertisers at a moment when media companies are already bracing for slower growth.
• Streaming may see short-term subscriber gains as consumers seek affordable entertainment—but that growth could be undermined by higher churn and softer ad revenues.
• Companies betting big on sports rights, AVOD, and international hardware ecosystems may need to reassess how they protect margins without sacrificing user experience.
• Theaters could once again prove resilient in downturns—but only if pricing adapts. Discounted tickets, not premium upsells, may be the path to survival.