Executive Summary

Despite a healthy overall consumer spending environment in 2019, the upcoming holiday season will be accompanied by economic uncertainty and a shorter timeframe. Still, there will be strong online growth rates, and overall spending will reach milestones.

How much will be spent during the 2019 holiday season?

We forecast that total US retail sales will climb 3.8% to $1.008 trillion, making it the first-ever trillion-dollar holiday season, while US retail ecommerce spending will rise 13.2% to $135.35 billion.

Which economic conditions are driving our holiday forecast?

Holiday spending growth will be driven by a consumer economy that remains robust, due to low unemployment, rising wages, a strong stock market and healthy consumer confidence. At the same time, rising tariffs and trade war tensions, stock market volatility, and dampening consumer sentiment all weigh on the season’s growth potential—while the shortened calendar between Thanksgiving and Christmas presents an additional challenge.

How big will Black Friday and Cyber Monday be for online holiday shopping?

Cyber Monday is once again expected to be the biggest online shopping day in history, with a total that could approach—or even surpass—$10 billion. Black Friday, Thanksgiving and “Cyber Tuesday” should also rank among the leading days for the season.

Which retailers will be this holiday season’s winners and losers?

The largest online and big-box retailers appear well positioned for the 2019 holiday season. With fast shipping at a premium during the compressed holiday season, retailers like Amazon have an advantage for online deliveries, while those with advanced click-and-collect operations like Walmart, Target and Best Buy will also get a leg up on the competition.

WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? This report includes our forecast for total retail, ecommerce and mcommerce spending for the 2019 holiday season, and analysis of seven key factors that will shape the season.

KEY STAT: Holiday ecommerce spending in 2019 will rise 13.2%, more than three times the rate of total retail spending growth.