Google’s AI Overviews aren’t hurting some publishers’ traffic yet, but they still loom large

The news: Publishers have yet to see significant traffic drop-offs due to the launch of Google’s AI Overviews, according to Q2 results from The New York Times, IAC (parent of Dotdash Meredith), and Ziff Davis.

• A Dotdash analysis found that AI answers were only served on 15% of its largest search categories, and the negative impact on traffic has been “negligible.”
• Ziff Davis—which primarily owns technology, gaming, and entertainment news sites—found that AI answers were served on just 8% of its most important search queries, adding that it doesn’t see the overviews as a significant change to the search experience.
• The New York Times did not mention AI Overviews in its Q2 earnings report and saw a significant profit jump of 41%. The company added 300,000 digital subscribers in Q2 and had a 7.8% increase in digital advertising revenues.

Crisis averted? Not so much: Before AI Overviews were broadly rolled out in May, there was speculation that publishers could see search traffic declines of as much as 60%, adding another existential threat to the growing pile of challenges facing the publishing industry.

But while the first quarter of AI Overviews has not significantly affected traffic for some publishers, that doesn’t mean it won’t be a larger threat in the long term.

• AI Overviews suffered a messy launch with answers that recommended eating rocks and staring at the sun, prompting Google to slow its rollout somewhat. According to BrightEdge, AI Overviews only appeared on 15% of search queries in May, but Google has been clear that it believes the product is the future of its search experience, meaning it is likely to expand to yet-untouched search categories.
• Despite its statements, Ziff Davis may be more susceptible to AI Overviews than Dotdash Meredith. The latter publishes across a broad range of topics, while Ziff Davis primarily publishes tech and gaming news—both categories that are highly reliant on search traffic for guides and product recommendations, which could easily be disrupted by AI Overviews.
• The New York Times also stands apart from Dotdash Meredith, Ziff Davis, and most publishers—its position as an industry leader and diversified revenues insulate it somewhat from the downward trajectory of the publishing industry.

Our take: AI Overviews may not yet be making a dent in publisher traffic, but it is still a looming cloud on the horizon. As Google rolls the product out more broadly, publishers could still see significant traffic declines, which could lead advertisers to spend elsewhere.