Following Google’s second antitrust loss in under a year, Google is at a crossroads. The recent ruling that Google maintains an illegal monopoly on ad tech, combined with last year’s ruling of antitrust practices in online search, could reshape digital advertising.
“[The court] acknowledged the interplay between Google's two monopolies,” said our analyst Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf on our “Behind the Numbers” podcast.“The decision tree is endless here."
Advertisers should watch the possible outcomes for Google, though the implications of this decision will likely follow a lengthy appeals process.
The recent ruling
According to the court, Google has illegal monopolies in two areas of the online advertising market: Ad exchanges (where publishers sell ad space through supply-side platforms) and ad servers (used by publishers to manage ad inventory).
Publishers have been locked into Google’s ecosystem because of the connection between these properties, Mitchell-Wolf said. This ruling follows last year's decision that Google maintains an illegal monopoly in online search.
Potential remedies could reshape digital advertising
“The DOJ has recommended a forced divestiture of Google's sell-side ad tech assets at a minimum,” Mitchell-Wolf said. That means Google would have to sell off DoubleClick for Publishers (DFP) and AdX, which are part of Google Ad Manager.
“There has been some speculation as well that Google's buy-side assets including Display & Video 360 or DV360 and Google Ads could be on the table,” she said.
Behavioral remedies are also being considered to break up the interoperability keeping advertisers within the Google ecosystem, such as making Google’s ads available on other exchanges beyond AdX or giving ad tech players access to Google's auction data.
“With more information about why certain bids win in an auction, publishers would be able to optimize their monetization strategies more efficiently, and other ad tech players might be able to fine-tune their algorithms to better compete so Google's sheer size isn't as much of an advantage,” Mitchell-Wolf said.
The broader implications for digital advertising
The ruling comes amid increased antitrust scrutiny of major tech companies. The FTC is looking to break up Meta's business by forcing it to separate from Instagram and WhatsApp, while Amazon and Apple face their own antitrust challenges.
The timing is particularly significant as Google is in the remedy trial for its search case. “There's a good chance that the remedies in both of these cases will be intertwined,” Mitchell-Wolf noted.
While Google and Meta may remain the two largest players in digital advertising, any sell-offs would represent multibillion-dollar opportunities for competitors to seize market share, potentially creating a less centralized ad ecosystem.
"If Google and Meta lose these cases and the appeals, the ad landscape could be unrecognizable five years from now," Mitchell-Wolf said.
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