EMARKETER’s forecasting team answers your questions on Trump’s tariffs and global recession concerns

The news: President Donald Trump’s newly imposed tariffs are harsher than anticipated, exceeding EMARKETER’s base-case scenario and signaling a major disruption to global trade.

• Early assessments from our forecasting team indicate that the likelihood of a US recession is rising well above the previous 20–30% range, driven by weakened consumer confidence, stalled investment, and potential retaliation from global trade partners.
• The new policy introduces a demand shock for international markets—particularly the EU and emerging Asia-Pacific markets like China, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand, while Latam appears less exposed to reciprocal penalties.
• Inflationary pressures are expected to hit the US especially hard, squeezing real incomes and weighing on consumer spending. Even if de-escalation occurs, the economic uncertainty will leave a lasting mark on GDP and consumption behavior.

What’s next? The impact of tariffs extends beyond global trade—it will have an impact on advertising strategies and media planning.

• Advertisers with exposure to China or Asia-Pacific markets are likely to delay campaign launches or reallocate budgets as they await more clarity on economic fallout. Nintendo has delayed Switch 2 preorders amid market uncertainty, pushing back not only hardware rollout but also the ad campaigns that would typically accompany a major launch.
• Performance-driven channels, including social, programmatic, and search are emerging as safer bets in volatile environments, offering real-time flexibility for adjusting budgets.
• Traditional media formats like TV and print are likely to suffer further as marketers pull back on long-term commitments, which will undoubtedly impact Upfront negotiations.
• The situation introduces additional volatility just as advertisers are heading into seasonal planning periods for back-to-school, holiday, and Q4 campaigns, which could drive more cautious investment.

Our analysts are currently preparing an updated US Retail & Ecommerce forecast, slated for release in May, with revised global retail forecasts coming by late June.

Our take: The tariff escalation is more than a headline—it’s a structural shock that could reshape global consumer demand and ad spending for the remainder of 2025 and for years to come.

While there’s still room for negotiation, our forecasting team believes the psychological toll on consumer and business sentiment could be just as impactful as the tariffs themselves.

• As inflation hits harder at home, real income erosion in the US could dampen discretionary spending, putting pressure on ecommerce, retail, and entertainment categories.
• Global advertisers will face an increasingly complex landscape, with region-specific volatility, uneven retaliatory measures, and currency shocks all influencing campaign execution.
• The trade and advertising ripple effects are particularly acute in export-driven economies and manufacturing hubs, where uncertainty may stall both brand investment and consumer activity.
• Flexibility, responsiveness, and performance orientation will define the brands and platforms best positioned to navigate the months ahead.

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