The incoming Trump administration will indisputably affect the future of Big Tech. The breakup of Google, the forced sale or ban of TikTok, and the regulation of AI are all issues the president-elect will need to take a stance on.
“Trump makes all sorts of statements that seem unambiguous,” said our analyst Yory Wurmser. “But he also often argues positions that are contradictory, so it's very difficult to decipher what his actual policy positions will be. Big Tech is a great example.”
Trump’s motivations on all three of these issues are similar: a focus on deregulation, perceived competition with China, and personal biases against certain companies. But the outcomes for Google, TikTok, and AI are unclear, leaving marketers to continue business as usual while making contingency plans in the event of major changes.
Big Tech in general could be in a good position with the incoming administration due to the focus on deregulation. “Google probably is better positioned with Trump than it would have been under a second Biden term or a Harris presidency,” said Wurmser.
Still, Google is facing multiple antitrust cases, one which has resulted in the Department of Justice (DOJ) pushing for a sale of Chrome.
The practical outcomes of Google’s legal issues are difficult to predict, because we don’t yet know who will lead the DOJ and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). “Nothing is settled until the leaders are confirmed,” said our analyst Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf.
Google is in a tricky position because of a perceived bias against the GOP. In August, Trump said, “Google has been very bad. They've been very irresponsible and I have a feeling that Google is gonna be close to shut down.”
If Google finds a way to win favor with the Trump administration, the ad giant could come out of its legal battles unscathed.
TikTok is in a similar position to Google. Owner Bytedance has until January 19—the day before Trump will take office—to sell the platform or face a ban. The conservative government may push for the repeal of or not enforce a ban, but that support is conditional.
“The Trump administration could be a lifeline for TikTok,” said our analyst Jasmine Enberg. “But even if Trump manages to save the app from the current legislation, there’s no guarantee that he won’t go after TikTok later.”
Trump has already gone back and forth on TikTok for years. He attempted to ban the platform back in 2020, only to campaign on saving it this year. “At the same time, many of the people in his orbit are hardliners when it comes to China and undoubtedly want TikTok either banned or sold away from ByteDance,” said Wurmser.
These mixed perspectives leave TikTok in a decent position come January, but in a far murkier position long term.
Compared with Google or TikTok, the future of AI under a Trump presidency is a bit more clear.
“I think Trump will roll back a bunch of regulations on AI bias and safety,” said Wurmser. “Overall, I think he wants to pump up investments in AI.”
In short, deregulation is good news for companies investing in AI and generative AI. But Trump may perceive many of the leading AI companies, including OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, and Meta, as having liberal biases. Increased AI regulation could be a way to target these companies.
This was originally featured in the EMARKETER Daily newsletter. For more marketing insights, statistics, and trends, subscribe here.