The DOJ is calling for Google to sell Chrome. Where will that leave advertisers?

On Nov. 20, the US Department of Justice (DOJ) recommended Google be mandated to sell Chrome as part of an ongoing antitrust case that could upturn digital marketing. It's a change intended to increase competition, and marketing experts think it will.

“I believe this remedy is both appropriate and meaningful,” said Rand Fishkin, cofounder and CEO at audience research platform SparkToro. "It would not only help resolve the fundamental source of Google's monopoly abuse, but could introduce a wave of innovation and opportunity across the search and digital marketing universe."

Leaders across the ad industry celebrated Google’s potential breakup. “If successful, this would reinvigorate competition in the industry, leading to new innovation and even search engines competing for our ad dollars—something that hasn’t really happened in years,” said Valerie Schlosser, group connections director for paid search at agency VML.

A Chrome sale would disrupt the buy-side, sell-side, and measurement ecosystems in digital marketing, noted Teiffyon Parry, chief strategy officer at ad tech company Equativ. “To foster real competition and drive better outcomes for consumers, brands, and publishers, [Google's] hold must be broken.”

Google currently holds 26.7% of US digital ad spend share and 52.4% of US search spend share, per our November 2024 forecast. The company has faced some competition due to cookie loss, the rise of retail media search advertising, and generative AI search disruption. But Google remains by far the biggest player in search advertising, and disrupting that ecosystem would change the way advertisers collect data and spend money.

But while untethering Google and Chrome could lead to innovation across the ad industry, it would also introduce more fragmentation for marketers to navigate, according to Todd Parsons, chief product officer at commerce media platform Criteo.

“This shift could lead to significant challenges, including reduced data-collection capabilities, a market share shake-up in search, and the loss of single sign-on functionality,” said Luca Bozzo, director of programmatic operations and partnerships at video technology platform JWP Connatix.

A Chrome decoupling won’t shatter Google completely, and many things would stay the same for advertisers. So long as Google retains ownership of its ad server Google Ad Manager (GAM), it will retain control of the ad auction for much of the open internet, Bozzo said. And Google will leverage the platforms it still owns to collect digital signals, said Equativ’s Parry, including Gmail, GooglePay, YouTube, Google IoT hardware, and more.

Experts across the industry advised advertisers to diversify their strategies in the event of a Google breakup.

• Diversify data collection. “Leveraging alternative IDs, privacy-focused solutions like contextual targeting, and existing signals such as audience and performance data will be crucial. By adopting a test-and-learn approach, brands can better understand how to connect with their audiences in a more dynamic and privacy-conscious ecosystem,” said Bozzo.
• Diversify platform mix. “Intensifying competition from Microsoft, Amazon, Apple and others will push Google to open its AI engines to third-party platforms, enabling new consumer interfaces. This reality will drive the growth of diverse platforms, ending the era where digital journeys begin by ‘Googling it.’ Marketers will need to embrace a multiplatform, and more balanced channel strategy to navigate this fragmentation effectively,” Parry said.
• Test and learn. “The introduction of competition into the market gives users and advertisers alike the opportunity to vote with their clicks and their dollars. Go where the true cost efficiency is,” said Schlosser.

All of this assumes a Chrome sale actually takes place, which remains uncertain. While the DOJ has asked the antitrust case judge to order a sale, Google will likely appeal that decision, which could punt any tangible outcome well into the future. And experts are torn over whether the incoming Trump administration will oppose Google as a Big Tech player or be more lenient than the current administration with antitrust cases.

“My only fear is that the DOJ is unable to complete the process before the new, monopoly-friendly administration takes power and destroys this once-in-a-generation opportunity,” Fishkin said.

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