Data Drop: 5 Charts on 2024 Back-to-School Shopping

As Seasonal Sales Growth Slows, How Should Brands and Retailers Stay Competitive?

Report by Sarah Marzano  | UPDATED: Sep 30, 2024
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The back-to-school season generates revenues brands and retailers count on, as the second-highest shopping volume of the year ahead of holiday. This year, though, back-to-school growth will be harder to come by as spending in key channels slows.
Topics
Holiday & Seasonal Shopping
US

With the second-highest shopping volume of the year, the back-to-school season gives many retailers and brands an infusion of sales. It also offers a glimpse into the consumer mindset ahead of the ever-important holiday shopping season. This year, though, back-to-school growth will be harder to come by, with a slowdown in sales for college-bound students and plateauing growth rates in physical retail stores.

Back-to-school season sales in 2024 will grow at their slowest rate in five years

Sales surged in the 2021 back-to-school season as students returned to in-person classes after the COVID-19 pandemic, and growth has outpaced total retail sales in each year since. This year, back-to-school will generate sales of more than $81 billion. However, the gap between growth for back-to-school sales and total retail sales is narrowing, as back-to-school shopping slows.

Following a COVID-Era Acceleration, Back-to-School Sales Will Lose Momentum in 2024 (billions in US back-to-school season retail sales and % change, 2020-2024)
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Click here to view our full forecast for US back-to-school season sales.

Here’s what’s in the full report

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Charts in This Report

Following a COVID-Era Acceleration, Back-to-School Sales Will Lose Momentum in 2024 (billions in US back-to-school season retail sales and % change, 2020-2024)The Post-COVID Shift to Ecommerce Was More Pronounced for Back-to-School Categories (ecommerce % of US back-to-school vs. total retail sales and 5-year ppt. change, 2019-2024)
Ecommerce Sustains Higher Growth Rates in Back-to-School Shopping Than Physical (% change in US back-to-school season ecommerce vs. physical retail sales, 2020-2024)K-12 Back-to-School Sales Growth Has Slowed but Will Outpace the Season Overall in 2024 (billions in US grades K-12 back-to-school season retail sales and % change, 2020-2024)
Back-to-College Spending Growth Will Slow to Pre-Pandemic Levels (billions in US college-bound back-to-school retail sales and % change, 2019-2024)

First Published on May 10, 2024

authors

Sarah Marzano