CTV becomes TV’s growth engine as linear collapses

The news: Connected TV (CTV) is overtaking linear as television’s growth engine. Once the undisputed king, linear TV has fallen to just 12% of global ad spending, while CTV is on pace to exceed 40% by 2030, per WARC Media’s Global Ad Trends report.

CTV already accounts for nearly half of viewing hours, fueling billions in ad revenues for Netflix, Amazon, and YouTube. The shift signals not just changing audiences but also a fundamental rewiring of how ads are bought, measured, and monetized.

Why It matters: CTV offers more than reach—it brings precision. Retailers like Amazon and Walmart are merging commerce data with TV buys, linking impressions to transactions in ways linear could never achieve. 

• Programmatic platforms lower entry costs, enabling opportunities for smaller advertisers once confined to social or search.
• Creative formats are also evolving: Pause ads, shoppable overlays, QR codes, and interactive experiences are challenging the 30-second spot. 
• The challenge for CMOs is managing fragmentation—working across different platforms, standards, and definitions of what qualifies as “TV.”

Challenges and opportunities: We forecast annual growth in US CTV spend will cool from nearly 14% in 2026 to closer to 11% by 2029, suggesting the market is maturing. That trajectory forces advertisers to rethink how to sustain momentum:

• Challenge: Fragmentation and measurement gaps will intensify as more dollars chase more platforms. Without unified standards, CMOs risk overspending on frequency and underdelivering on outcomes.
• Opportunity: Even at slower growth, CTV will add nearly $20 billion in US ad dollars over the next five years, opening room for retail data integration, creative experimentation, and programmatic scale.

Our take: CTV is moving from experimentation to expectation. With US spending expected to balloon in the next few years, the question isn’t if brands should shift budgets—it’s how fast.

CMOs who lean into retail integration and creative innovation while demanding accountability will set the pace in a US CTV market projected to reach $51 billion by 2029. Those who wait risk losing share as CTV matures into advertising’s most measurable channel.