A recession would put more than $200 billion in credit card issuer revenues at risk. Issuers must be fully prepared for weakened consumers hobbled by unemployment, depleted savings, and extra debt payments. And they should prepare for the toll that deteriorating credit card spending and loan risk could take on charge-off rates, merchant fee revenues, and interest income.
Key Question: How would a recession affect consumer credit card revenues?
KEY STAT: As consumer risk and savings return to pre-pandemic levels, credit card charge-off rates could enter a hazard zone—and an unemployment rate spike would push rates even higher.
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