China Douyin Social Commerce Forecast 2023

The Short-Video App Catches Up to Retail Old Guards

Report by Man-Chung Cheung  | UPDATED: Jan 29, 2024
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Executive Summary
Douyin will become China’s largest social platform by the end of 2025.
Douyin will drive the majority of growth in retail ecommerce sales in 2023.
Douyin’s ecommerce success story won’t be easily replicated in other markets.
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Media Gallery
About This Report
Douyin, TikTok's Chinese sibling, is about to become China’s largest social platform. It's also crashing the country’s ecommerce party. Already the fourth largest online shopping platform by sales, its market share is rapidly approaching JD.com's.
Topics
Social Commerce
China
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Douyin will become China’s largest social platform by the end of 2025.
Douyin will drive the majority of growth in retail ecommerce sales in 2023.
Douyin’s ecommerce success story won’t be easily replicated in other markets.
Sources
Media Gallery

Douyin’s ascendance has been undeniable. By the end of 2025, the short-video app will have more users in China than vaunted super app WeChat. Douyin’s foray into ecommerce has been just as remarkable, as the company is already China’s fourth biggest online seller. This year, Douyin’s sales will amount to over a quarter of Alibaba’s while closing in on JD.com’s.

Key Question: How quickly will Douyin’s retail ecommerce sales grow, and how will its sales compare to those of other platforms?

Retail Ecommerce Sales Growth in China, by Company, 2020-2024 (% change)
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KEY STAT: Douyin’s retail ecommerce sales in China will grow by 60.0% in 2023, far surpassing growth rates seen by Alibaba, JD.com, and Pinduoduo.

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Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. Douyin will become China’s largest social platform by the end of 2025.
  1. Douyin will drive the majority of growth in retail ecommerce sales in 2023.
  2. Douyin’s ecommerce success story won’t be easily replicated in other markets.
  1. Sources
  2. Media Gallery

Charts in This Report

Retail Ecommerce Sales Growth in China, by Company, 2020-2024 (% change)Douyin* vs. WeChat** Users in China, 2023-2027 (millions)
Douyin vs. Sina Weibo Users* in China, 2023-2027 (millions)Douyin Retail Ecommerce Sales in China, 2021-2024 (billions, % change, and % of total retail ecommerce sales)
Douyin* and TikTok** Users Worldwide, 2023-2027 (millions)Livestreaming Retail Ecommerce Sales in China, 2021-2025 (billions, % change, and % of total ecommerce sales)

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First Published on Sep 14, 2023

authors

Man-Chung Cheung

Contributors

Jasmine Enberg
Principal Analyst
Jennifer Merritt
Vice President, Content
Peter Newman
Director, Forecasting
Paul Verna
Principal Analyst
Debra Aho Williamson
Principal Analyst

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