ByteDance expands the ranks of duopoly challengers

ByteDance properties Douyin and TikTok have been making waves inside and outside China for several years. Their combined spectacular growth will result in ad revenues of more than $30 billion for their parent company in 2022, leaving ByteDance in fifth place among ad publishers worldwide.

ByteDance was likely already in fifth place as far back as 2020, but this is the first year we have a combination forecast for TikTok and Douyin. Two years ago, over 90% of ByteDance’s ad revenues came from Douyin, but TikTok’s explosive growth since then has helped its parent’s ad revenues more than double in two years. TikTok alone is expected to triple its revenues this year, reaching $11.64 billion.

Google (Alphabet) remains well in front of primary competitor Meta at the top of the worldwide list, where the “duopoly” still reigns by a wide margin. But challengers Alibaba, Amazon, and ByteDance are now also megaplayers with ad businesses that far exceed the ad industry spending totals of most countries.

ByteDance’s two champions will account for more than 5% of the global market this year, compared with just 2.0% in 2019. Regardless of those gains, the duopoly’s three main challengers will still only combine to claim 19.3% of global revenues this year, less than Meta’s or Google’s individual shares. The duopoly’s combined share will slowly tick down in future years, but only slightly.

Within two years, Kuaishou, JD.com, and Apple will have joined the $10 billion club as well.