BNPL is shining this holiday season. Here’s how retailers should think about it moving forward

Shoppers are more comfortable than ever using buy now, pay later (BNPL) —and not just during the holidays.

• BNPL volume will hit $18.5 billion this holiday season, with Cyber Monday alone accounting for just shy of $1 billion in spend, per Adobe.
• That’s 27.6% more than BNPL holiday sales volume in 2022.

Shoppers who use BNPL trend younger and most have lower incomes than the general population. Here’s what that means for retailers.

BNPL users are spending more

US BNPL payment value will reach $108.43 billion in 2025—its first time crossing the $100 billion mark and a growth of 15.0% over 2024.

• Double-digit growth will continue for several years, per our August 2024 forecast.
• User volume will grow far slower than payment volume, increasing by just 5.8% YoY in 2025, as BNPL use nears a point of saturation.
• These disparate growth trends mean existing users are spending more via BNPL. They will average $1,185.50 per user in 2025, and growth will continue through our forecasting period.

What it means: Retailers looking to benefit from BNPL should not focus on getting consumers to adopt the payment strategy, but on encouraging those who already use BNPL to feel comfortable spending more.

Gen Z user growth is still high

While US BNPL user growth is in the single digits for all other generations, Gen Z BNPL use will increase by 12.4% next year, per our forecast, as young people look to increase their spending power without needing a high credit score.

• Millennials make up the largest share of BNPL users (36.5%) in 2024, but penetration is higher among Gen Zers. More than 50.7% of Gen Z digital buyers will use BNPL next year.
• BNPL growth is particularly slow for millennials, who have reached a point of saturation, and baby boomers, whose use is decreasing as population decreases.

What it means: Retailers who want to encourage Gen Z shopping should make sure BNPL options are offered not only online but also seamlessly at in-store checkout. As card-linked BNPL offerings gain popularity, use in-store may become more common.

BNPL shoppers are often lower income

People with incomes under $75,000 will make up more than half (54.8%) of US BNPL users in 2025, per our forecast, as they try to stretch spending power further.

• People with incomes of $125,000 and over will account for 22.7% of BNPL users, showing its use is not limited to lower earners.
• That said, the share of high-income BNPL users will decrease over the next few years.

What it means: Retailers can emphasize BNPL to get people across incomes to convert. While BNPL’s availability may be particularly attractive to lower earners, the tech has adoption across the income scale.

Will the BNPL bubble burst eventually? It’s unclear.

“BNPL usage growth on its own is not bad. There's more use cases, more acceptance, more people using it. That's not a bad thing,” our analyst Grace Broadbent said on the “Behind the Numbers” podcast. “I think what gets concerning is the underlying trends that BNPL payments are harder to track. They make budgeting more difficult to keep track of all the payments, more spending inherently creates more risk.”

This was originally featured in the Retail Daily newsletter. For more retail insights, statistics, and trends, subscribe here.