Anti-US sentiment could deliver a $90 billion hit to US GDP this year

The insight: Rising anti-US sentiment could cost the economy as much as $90 billion this year, or 0.3% of GDP, according to an analysis from Goldman Sachs, as consumers abroad boycott American products and travel in response to tariffs and other diplomatic provocations.

That could put a significant dent in the US services surplus, which stood at $293 billion in 2024 and is highly reliant on spending from foreign visitors.

Consumers worldwide are getting agitated: President Donald Trump’s tariff threats, along with assorted other proposals such as wanting to annex Greenland and turn Canada into the 51st US state, are alienating even the US’ staunchest allies.

• Global average favorability of the US was 20 points lower in March compared with January, according to Morning Consult, with declines across virtually every region.
• Unsurprisingly, consumers in Canada (down 44 points) and Mexico (down 32 points) are particularly disgruntled—but so too are those in South Korea (down 38 points), France (down 33 points), and Brazil (down 19 points).

Trump’s reciprocal tariff plans have only added fuel to the fire, as more consumers worldwide say they are—or plan to—boycott American brands and products in response to his policies.

• 61% of Canadian adults have started boycotting American companies, up 8 percentage points from February, according to an April YouGov poll.
• 62% of French consumers support boycotts of US businesses, per a survey conducted by Ifop for tourism site nyc.fr. Roughly 1 in 3 (32%) have already begun boycotting brands like Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, and KFC, as well as Tesla and X.
• Likewise, sky-high tariffs on Chinese goods and retaliatory moves from Beijing are complicating US companies’ China recovery, as shifting preferences, rising patriotism, and a desire to save money push consumers to embrace local brands.

The impact: For the most part, it’s too early to tell if these boycotts are having any effect on companies’ performances—with the exception of Tesla, which reported a steep drop in Q1 sales as founder Elon Musk’s close ties to the president have turned the brand into a lightning rod for anti-Trump and anti-US sentiment.

There is evidence, however, that international visitors are steering clear of the US.

• The number of non-citizens arriving in the US was down 11.6% YoY in March, according to the International Trade Administration, with a steep drop in visitors from all regions save the Middle East.
• Canadians are especially reluctant to travel south at the moment: Air Canada reported a 10% drop in demand for bookings between Canada and the US for the April to September period, while border crossings between the two hit their lowest level since the pandemic in February.
• The sharp drop in tourism puts nearly $20 billion in US retail spending at risk, per a Bloomberg analysis—compounding the difficulties retailers already face in a highly uncertain environment.

Our take: US brands are in a serious bind. Not only do they face a pullback in spending from domestic consumers wary of rising prices and fearful of a recession, but they must also navigate rising anti-US sentiment globally, which is spurring consumer boycotts and a sharp reduction in travel demand.

That said, while consumers may be choosing to vote with their wallets in the short term, it remains to be seen whether shoppers can maintain those behaviors—especially if it means buying more expensive products at a time when every dollar counts.

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