In our previous forecast, we anticipated high revenue and user growth for Airbnb. However, the pandemic has severely affected the company along with the overall digital travel industry.
This year, Airbnb’s US adult user base will fall 60.0% to 17.0 million. This is the first time that the company has experienced negative user growth. Despite the steep decrease, we expect the number of Airbnb users to nearly recover to pre-pandemic levels by 2021. Our estimate assumes that the US will begin recovering in H2 2020 and see improved treatments and a widely available vaccine next year.