After dramatic growth, Netflix’s user numbers will even out this year

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Netflix’s user growth saw drastic shifts during the pandemic, but we expect it to begin evening out this year. Though Netflix had an overall stellar 2020, it was a rollercoaster: More than two-thirds of its new subscribers were added in H1 2020, only for net subscriber additions to fall to just 2.2 million in Q3 2020.

This past quarter was a return to normalcy, with Q4 2020’s 8.5 million new subscribers similar to Q4 2019’s 8.8 million.

Barring another major pandemic development, however, we won’t see swings like that again. In 2021, Netflix’s user growth will enter the single digits for the first time since we began tracking it, growing by 9.3% this year and staying relatively flat until at least 2024. But that’s less a sign of stagnation, and more a reflection of Netflix approaching market saturation.

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