This article was compiled with the help of generative AI based on data and analysis that is original to EMARKETER.
As 2024 heads into the last quarter, the tech and media landscapes face pivotal shifts. From a potential AI backlash to new Google consent workflows, and TikTok’s future, these medium-term predictions, shared by our analysts on a recent two-part episode of EMARKETER’s “Behind the Numbers” podcast, spotlight the challenges and opportunities that may lie ahead.
Here are their six “very specific, but highly unlikely” predictions for the future of tech and media:
“I predict that a company will publicly repudiate generative AI as a technology, thereby setting off a big conversation in tech and media about its efficacy and usefulness,” our analyst Max Willens said.
Why it matters: While tech giants and others are spending about $1 trillion on AI capital expenditures in the coming years, a Goldman Sachs report suggests the ROI, especially in the short term, is still in question. AI adoption is also slowing faster than other technologies like social media or digital video, as consumers struggle to find practical uses for it, our senior director of podcasts Marcus Johnson added.
“Google will start testing its new consent workflow in Chrome right after the holiday season without warning,” our analyst Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf predicted.
Why it matters: Instead of blocking third-party cookies wholesale, Google will offer users the choice to opt in or out. This may effectively result in consumers killing third-party cookies themselves. The timing and roll out could catch advertisers off guard if Google doesn't provide advance notice.
“In a year, Tubi will account for 2.5% of total time spent with streaming and TV as judged by Nielsen," our analyst Ross Benes predicted. This would put Tubi ahead of most major streaming services except YouTube, Netflix, and Amazon.
Why it matters: As a free ad-supported service, Tubi has an advantage in reaching viewers. Its eclectic content library also differentiates it. However, Tubi faces discoverability challenges without being preloaded on smart TVs like some competitors.
“Sometime between now and the deadline that they face from US regulators, someone at ByteDance or the Chinese government will blink and ByteDance will agree to sell TikTok to a US-based interest,” Willens predicted.
Why it matters: With China’s economy facing headwinds, the government may be more willing to allow the sale to protect manufacturers and exporters. A US company like Walmart could be a potential buyer, leveraging TikTok for retail media and ecommerce ambitions, Willens said.
Mitchell-Wolf predicted that “a law around children’s online safety or privacy gets passed [within] the first six months of the next presidential administration.”
Why it matters: Bills like the Kids Online Safety Act and COPPA 2.0 have bipartisan support. Protecting children online has become a key issue for voters and politicians. However, potential First Amendment challenges could impact implementation.
“I’m predicting that Dish and DirecTV will merge, but even though they will come together, it won’t ultimately affect much of anything other than these two companies will continue to circle the drain,” Benes said.
Why it matters: While a merger may provide temporary relief, it likely won’t solve the fundamental challenges facing satellite TV providers as cord-cutting accelerates. Unlike cable companies, satellite providers can’t easily diversify into other services like internet access.
Listen to the full episodes (Part One, Part Two).
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