Halfway through the current decade, retail media has bled into the wider concept of commerce media, which will be a $68.69 billion industry in the US this year, per our December 2024 forecast.
Here are three predictions for what commerce and retail media will look like in the year ahead.
1. Mobile devices will be a boon for in-store retail media
Despite rapid growth, in-store retail media will account for just 0.8% of US retail media ad spend in 2025, or a total of $530 million, per our November 2024 forecast. But that figure does not include advertisements on mobile devices being viewed in stores.
Many consumers are on retailers’ mobile apps and websites while in-store, making their cell phones the perfect platform for ads viewed while shopping IRL.
“While 76% of Target guests use the app while they're in store, that number jumps up to 90% for Gen Z,” said Nikhil Sharma, senior director of performance and insights at Roundel on a June episode of our "Behind the Numbers" podcast.
And it’s not just Target where consumers are looking at retail apps. At Sam’s Club, for example, 1 in 3 members are using Scan & Go self-checkout on mobile, where they can also see Sam’s Club Member Access Platform’s mobile ads.
Ad buyers should be thinking about app and website ads’ potential as an in-store purchase driver when media planning. But retail media networks (RMNs) need to make sure their measurement and attribution accurately reflects when consumers are seeing mobile ads in stores and when it's driving purchases in order to unlock further spend.
2. EV charging stations will provide more OOH space for RMNs
Some 4.9% of licensed drivers in the US drive electric cars, a figure that will more than double over the next four years, per our September 2024 forecast. While EV (electric vehicle) affordability is limiting purchase growth, the people who do own EVs still need to charge their cars, creating opportunities for charging stations in retailer parking lots to offer ads.
Some 61% of EV owners are more likely to shop at retailers with charging stations, according to Numerator. But charging stations aren’t just a draw to bring consumers to the retailers that offer them—they also provide out-of-home (OOH) ad space for RMNs. If the Trump administration ends tax credits for EV purchases, it could hinder retail media growth for EV charging stations, but in the meantime they can provide extra OOH inventory for RMNs.
Advertisers taking advantage of retail media spots on EV stations can reach younger, more diverse, and higher-income consumers than the average vehicle owner, per Numerator.
Cost savings on fuel (74%) and maintenance (51%) are the top reasons EV owners choose electric, per Numerator. RMNs can push discounts and deals to these price-conscious consumers in order to drive in-store buys.
EV owners show preference for Whole Foods, Sprouts Farmers Market, Costco, and Albertsons. These media networks and the brands that advertise on them should consider leaning into OOH advertising on EV charging stations.
3. Publishers rebrand as “content media networks”
As non-retailers borrow the retail media model, many platforms are rebranding (or launching) as commerce media networks, travel media networks, and payment media networks. Content could be next.
Publishers seeking to stay relevant may rebrand as content media networks. The move wouldn’t necessarily come with functional changes—digital publishers have always and will continue to serve ads. But it will emphasize publishers’ ability to target contextually or via logged in first-party data.
While publishers may not traditionally be seen as close to the point of purchase, niche, vertical media can come actually quite close to that point. For example, a video game may consider advertising on a gaming publication.
This rebrand would be attractive for partnerships like the existing one between Best Buy and CNET, where Best Buy features CNET content and CNET offers ads to Best Buy products. Advertisers should expect to see more of these in the future.
This was originally featured in the Retail Media Weekly newsletter. For more marketing insights, statistics, and trends, subscribe here.