From the rise of foldable smartphones, the shift in ad spend from browsers to apps, and the growth of shoppable media, these predictions from our analysts reveal how evolving consumer behavior will impact the mobile advertising market.
1. Foldable phones will gain traction in the US
“Increasing competition, better devices, and new media are going to make foldable phones more attractive this year,” our analyst Yory Wurmser said on an episode of the “Behind the Numbers: The Daily” podcast. “I expect to see them take off.”
Driving the prediction:
- Foldable phones will account for 2.2% of the smartphone market in 2024, up 38% YoY, according to TrendForce. The share of foldable phones will increase to 5% of the smartphone market worldwide by 2027, reaching 70 million units.
- Smartphone shipments worldwide will reach a 10-year low this year, per IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Phone Tracker, generating incentive for tech giants to push new devices.
- Chinese phone-makers such as Honor and Xiaomi are heating up the competition for affordable, innovative devices. “It is going to compel companies like Samsung and Apple to develop their own foldable phones,” Wurmser said.
Impact of the prediction:
- More mobile apps may take advantage of the growing number of consumers able to have multiple windows appear on-screen.
- Video apps, in particular, will adjust to the new, larger screen sizes from foldable phones.
2. Mobile browser ad dollars will shift to mobile apps
Mobile ad dollars will continue moving to apps because the experience is better than on a browser, said our analyst Peter Newman.
Driving the prediction:
- US time spent per day with mobile device browsers will decrease 6.9% this year to reach 18 minutes, according to our June 2023 forecast.
- Daily time spent with apps in the US will increase 2.8% in 2024, reaching 3 hours and 36 minutes.
- Overall US mobile ad spend will grow 14.4% this year, reaching $202.59 billion.
Impact of the prediction:
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Google’s deprecation of third-party cookies will change the mobile browsing experience, Newman said.
- “Some services are even making the browser experience even less feasible as an alternative,” Newman said, pointing to X (formerly Twitter), which has limited its functionality for users scrolling on a browser.
3. Shoppable media will flood mobile platforms
“Shoppable media isn’t just a wave or a trend. It’s the new tide of ecommerce and it’s here to stay,” said our analyst Andrew Spink. “It’s a reflection of a new era where consumers seamlessly transition from content consumption to making purchases in a single integrated flow.”
Driving the prediction:
- US shoppable media buyers will reach nearly 100 million this year, growing 4.4% YoY, per our September 2023 forecast.
- US adults will spend an average of 1 hour and 23 minutes each day on social networks in 2024. “The sheer scale of social media engagement provides an unparalleled platform for shoppable content,” Spink said.
- Social platforms such as TikTok, which will capture 40.7 million US social buyers this year, are driving the demand for immersive, interactive shopping experiences.
Impact of the prediction:
- “Social commerce platforms will continue to integrate seamless shopping features such as shoppable tags, immediate purchase options, and personalized product recommendations,” Spink said.
Listen to the full episode.
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