2025 trend: Retail media networks wade into unfamiliar waters to satisfy advertiser demands for incrementality

Retail media has swallowed up the shopper and trade marketing budgets of CPG brands. But as RMNs vie for bigger shares of ad budgets, they face increasingly urgent demands from advertisers to prove that their spending delivers results. To satisfy advertisers’ demands, retailers will further invest in measurement and augment their offerings by incorporating tools and channels that help demonstrate incrementality.

Incrementality is the top KPI for RMN advertisers, but it’s not the only one. Most RMN ads appear close to the point of purchase, so advertisers have reservations about how much of the attributed sales would have happened regardless. Enter incrementality: a KPI that isolates additional sales or engagement generated by a campaign. A full 71% of advertisers recognize incrementality as the most important KPI in RMN investments, according to a January 2024 survey by the Association of National Advertisers (ANA). But ROI and lift aren’t far behind. RMNs must deliver on multiple KPIs to satisfy advertisers.

More RMNs will incorporate media mix modeling (MMM) by launching their own models or partnering with third-party providers. MMM, which measures advertising effectiveness without cookie-based tracking, is getting a fresh look in the face of looming signal loss. Between Q1 2024 and Q3 2024, the number of RMNs that offered access to MMM rose 50%, according to Mars United Commerce. 

Retailers are forging closer relationships with creators. Looking to marry upper-funnel discovery with purchase-outcome functionality, retailers have been compelled to partner with creator subnetworks and platforms. Some retailers, such as Target, are just getting their affiliate programs off the ground, while others are further along. Walmart, for example, convened a creator upfront in October.

Predictions

• Creators will move into the RMN spotlight. As they seek to burnish their incrementality tool kits, retailers will focus on creators for upper-funnel activation.
• Data collaboration tech will become table stakes. Retailers will leverage data collaboration to combine accurate sales tracking with the scale of the open web.

Read the full report, Commerce Media Trends to Watch in 2025.