4 key factors that will influence what consumers eat and drink in 2025

The prediction: The incoming Trump administration’s policies, a new surgeon general’s warning, the rise of GLP-1s, and climate change will reshape what consumers eat and drink this year.

Here are four predictions:

Alcohol consumption will wane: US Surgeon General Vivek Murthy’s advisory recommending that alcoholic beverages carry warnings of their links to cancer will drive down the number of consumers who drink.

• The advisory notes that alcohol consumption is the third leading preventable cause of cancer in the US, after tobacco and obesity. If alcohol products require a mandatory tobacco-like cancer-warning label, sales will undoubtedly decline.
• That would accelerate an existing trend, which is particularly pronounced among younger consumers: Only 62% of US adults under 35 drink, down from 72% two decades ago, per Gallup Poll.

Processed foods will be under the spotlight: Politicians and political appointees are becoming increasingly vocal about the health risks from highly-processed foods, which could create a headwind for CPG companies.

• California Governor Gavin Newsom issued an executive order to investigate the adverse effects of such foods. The directive tasks the state health department with exploring measures such as warning labels, expanded research into synthetic food dyes, and stricter nutritional standards for school meals.
• Meanwhile, many expect significant changes if Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s nominee for secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, wins congressional approval, given his past statements about the harmful effects of food dyes, additives, and highly-processed foods on public health.

Food costs will rise: The path toward normalized food prices may hit turbulence this year.

• Trump’s proposed tariffs could sharply increase grocery bills, as about 60% of fresh fruit and 40% of fresh vegetables in the US are imported. Mexico, which faces a potential 25% tariff, is the leading source of these imports.
• Meanwhile, climate change will likely continue to disrupt agriculture, with last year’s adverse weather driving up prices for staples like cocoa, coffee, and oranges.

GLP-1s will shift consumption patterns: Roughly 1 in 8 US adults have already taken a GLP-1 drug, per KPP, and that number is likely to rise this year. For example, 26% of US consumers plan to take a weight loss drug to achieve their 2025 New Year's resolution goals, per Tebra.

• GLP-1s are transforming people’s food and beverage intake. For example, GLP-1 users, on average, spent about 11% less on most categories of food, with the biggest reductions in sweet and salty snacks and baked goods, per PwC.
• That trend hasn’t gone unnoticed by companies such as Nestlé, which last year launched Vital Pursuits, a frozen food offering tailored to GLP-1 users. More CPG companies will likely follow suit with similar lines this year.

Our take: Public policy will have an outsized impact on what consumers eat and drink this year.

This article is part of EMARKETER’s client-only subscription Briefings—daily newsletters authored by industry analysts who are experts in marketing, advertising, media, and tech trends. To help you finish 2024 strong, and start 2025 off on the right foot, articles like this one—delivering the latest news and insights—are completely free through January 31, 2025. If you want to learn how to get insights like these delivered to your inbox every day, and get access to our data-driven forecasts, reports, and industry benchmarks, schedule a demo with our sales team.